The dollar index could continue to retreat below 104.00

During the Asian session, the dollar index tried to start a recovery. 

Dollar index chart analysis

During the Asian session, the dollar index tried to start a recovery. We encountered resistance at the 104.30 level. After that, the index started a bearish consolidation and a retreat to 104.05 levels. Here, we are now trying to hold above the weekly open price. Looking at last week’s movement, the dollar is still under pressure to continue its retreat to a new low.

Market Sentiment: in the EU session, we tested last week’s low at 104.03. This could pull the dollar index to a new lower low and thereby extend the bearish scenario. If this happens, it could signal a further decline in the dollar’s value. Potential lower targets are 103.90 and 103.80. That would bring us back to the positions we had in March.

The dollar is still in the support zone at the start of this week

For a bullish option, we need a positive consolidation and a jump of the dollar index above the 104.40 level. With support from the EMA 50 moving average we could see a continuation of the recovery and a rise above Friday’s resistance zone. Here it would be good to create a new bottom and stabilize before continuing to the bullish side. Potential higher targets are 104.60 and 104.80 levels.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak again today at the US session. Tomorrow, from the economic news, we highlight US Core Retail Sales and US Retail Sales. On Wednesday morning, British Inflation, Eurozone Inflation, and Crude Oil Inventories will be key indicators to watch. On Thursday, the ECB will announce the future interest rate. Economists expect that it will remain at a lower level. After that, in the US session, we have the following: Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

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