• Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock
Stock

Traders see the odds of a Fed rate cut by September at 100%

by July 17, 2024
written by July 17, 2024

Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September.

There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. And there are 6.7% odds that the rate will be a half percentage point lower in September, accounting for some traders believing the central bank will cut at its meeting at the end of July and again in September, says the tool. Taken together, you get the 100% odds.

The catalyst for the change in odds was the consumer price index update for June announced last week, which showed a 0.1% decrease from the prior month. That put the annual inflation rate at 3%, the lowest in three years. Odds that rates would be cut in September were about 70% a month ago.

The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Simply put, this is a reflection of where traders are putting their money. Actual real-life probability of rates remaining where they are today in September are not zero percent, but what this means is that no traders out there are willing to put actual money on the line to bet on that.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent hints have also cemented traders’ belief that the central bank will act by September. On Monday, Powell said the Fed wouldn’t wait for inflation to get all the way to its 2% target rate before it began cutting, because of the lag effects of tightening.

The Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, he said.

“What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that,” added Powell.

The Fed next decides on interest rates on July 31 and again on Sept 18. It doesn’t meet on rates in August.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
Intel 14th Gen CPU Issues Adding Pressure to the Stock
next post
Amazon’s Prime Day a ‘major’ cause of worker injuries, Senate probe finds

related articles

YouTube to pay $24 million to settle Trump...

October 1, 2025

Charlie Javice sentenced to 7 years in prison...

October 1, 2025

Video game maker Electronic Arts to be acquired...

October 1, 2025

Nearly 200,000 BMWs recalled over potential fire risk

September 30, 2025

Trump says U.S. will impose new tariffs on...

September 29, 2025

Former Fed chairs warn that removing Lisa Cook...

September 27, 2025

Amazon to pay $2.5 billion to settle FTC...

September 27, 2025

The charm of watching movies in theaters is...

September 25, 2025

Ben & Jerry’s co-founder resigns, claiming parent company...

September 18, 2025

LimeWire acquires Fyre Festival, asking ‘What Could Possibly...

September 17, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News, And Articles.


Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest News

  • Biden’s ‘garbage’ comment sends Dem Senate candidates scrambling in key swing states: ‘strongly disagrees’

    October 30, 2024
  • The historic importance of Greenland for US national security as debate over island’s future roars on

    January 9, 2025
  • First round of US-made F-16s land in Ukraine as war with Russia rages on

    August 1, 2024
  • Biden finalizes crackdown on US military tech investments in China with one week to lame duck session

    October 31, 2024
  • Democrat congresswoman draws boos over ‘shameful’ sexism remark in committee hearing with Treasury Secretary

    June 12, 2025

Popular Posts

  • 1

    Secret Service admits leaning on ‘state and local partners’ after claim it ignored Trump team’s past requests

    July 21, 2024
  • 2

    Five more House Democrats call on Biden to drop out, third US senator

    July 19, 2024
  • 3

    Elon and Vivek should tackle US funding for this boondoogle organization and score a multimillion dollar win

    December 4, 2024
  • 4

    Forex Profit Calculator: Maximize Your Trading Potential

    July 10, 2024
  • 5

    Biden calls to ‘lower the temperature’ then bashes Trump in NAACP speech

    July 17, 2024

Categories

  • Economy (829)
  • Editor's Pick (6,248)
  • Investing (634)
  • Stock (935)

Latest Posts

  • Harris likens Trump to Hitler in scathing remarks, says he wants same military loyalty as German dictator

    October 24, 2024
  • Tilray secures new cannabis cultivation license in Germany: Is it time to buy TLRY?

    July 22, 2024
  • U.S. lawmakers move to ban China’s DeepSeek from government devices

    February 6, 2025

Recent Posts

  • Huckabee demands Israel ‘aggressively investigate’ murder of Palestinian-American killed in ‘terrorist act’

    July 16, 2025
  • Trump-backed spending bill goes down in flames as shutdown looms

    December 20, 2024
  • The dollar index has a new opportunity to start a recovery

    August 26, 2024

Editor’s Pick

  • Trump campaign says internal communications were hacked, including Vance ‘dossier,’ by foreign sources

    August 10, 2024
  • Remains of Shiri Bibas, mom of two killed, allegedly returned to Israel following Hamas’ broken promise

    February 22, 2025
  • Republican senator says Trump should not pardon Hunter Biden

    November 8, 2024
  • About us
  • Contacts
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Disclaimer: moneyrisetoday.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2025 moneyrisetoday.com | All Rights Reserved

Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock