• Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock
Editor's Pick

Historian who predicted almost every election since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in Trump-Harris matchup

by July 29, 2024
written by July 29, 2024

The ‘Keys to the White House’ are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.

Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right. 

Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key,’ and if ‘false,’ their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party’s candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic ‘key’ for President Biden’s incumbency – but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift. 

The ‘keys’ are as follows: 
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change, 
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman’s prediction. These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

There are still four more keys that have yet to be handed out. 

The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman says is notable given Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s place in the race.

Keys are also still in the air for having ‘no social unrest,’ as well as ‘foreign military failure’ and ‘foreign military success.’

If Democrats lose three more keys, then they would be the projected ‘losers,’ according to the election prognosticator’s formula.

A final prediction has not yet been made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes ‘a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.’

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016, and Biden in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
FTSE All-Share Index Live: Tech Companies Extend Gains
next post
Japanese eateries hike prices as tourist influx reaches record levels

related articles

Trump DOJ to begin handing over Epstein files...

August 22, 2025

TikTok isn’t enough to stop Gen Z from...

August 22, 2025

Trump administration wins Supreme Court fight to slash...

August 22, 2025

Zelenskyy seeks ‘strong reaction’ from US if Putin...

August 22, 2025

Pentagon unveils new medal for troops deployed in...

August 21, 2025

Federal judge rules Trump appointee Alina Habba is...

August 21, 2025

‘Maine’s Mamdani’: Maine GOP chief issues warning about...

August 21, 2025

‘There are 50 swamps’: State Freedom Caucus Network...

August 21, 2025

Trump-aligned legal group probes Biden-era organ transplant program...

August 21, 2025

NATO defense chiefs stress commitment to Ukraine, discuss...

August 21, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News, And Articles.


Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest News

  • Trump will appoint ‘dozens’ of judges, experts say, despite Dems ramming through nominees in lame-duck session

    November 23, 2024
  • Steve Bannon has two-word answer to dismiss 2028 presidential candidacy rumor

    August 7, 2025
  • Homeless people can be removed from streets by cities, states in new Trump executive order

    July 24, 2025
  • Nvidia Rides AI Wave: Stock Soars By 4.1%

    October 10, 2024
  • Venezuela’s Maduro to start third term in office amid rigged election: ‘Blatant violation’

    January 7, 2025

Popular Posts

  • 1

    Secret Service admits leaning on ‘state and local partners’ after claim it ignored Trump team’s past requests

    July 21, 2024
  • 2

    Five more House Democrats call on Biden to drop out, third US senator

    July 19, 2024
  • 3

    Elon and Vivek should tackle US funding for this boondoogle organization and score a multimillion dollar win

    December 4, 2024
  • 4

    Forex Profit Calculator: Maximize Your Trading Potential

    July 10, 2024
  • 5

    Biden calls to ‘lower the temperature’ then bashes Trump in NAACP speech

    July 17, 2024

Categories

  • Economy (829)
  • Editor's Pick (5,785)
  • Investing (634)
  • Stock (893)

Latest Posts

  • JD Vance accuses Tim Walz of ‘lying’ about military service: ‘Stolen valor garbage’

    August 7, 2024
  • UK climate campaigners challenge approval of new coal mine in High Court

    July 18, 2024
  • Why Wall Street thinks Brian Niccol is the person to revive Starbucks — and end the Howard Schultz era

    August 14, 2024

Recent Posts

  • Harris now the second Dem candidate to lose to Trump and not speak to supporters on election night

    November 6, 2024
  • Ex-Pentagon aide urges Trump to fire Hegseth, citing ‘full-blown meltdown’ and ‘total chaos’

    April 21, 2025
  • Hims Stock Soared 8.87% Last Week: Should You Invest?

    July 31, 2024

Editor’s Pick

  • Trump says US would strike again if Iran rebuilds nuclear program

    June 25, 2025
  • What are election betting odds? Expert explains why Trump is current favorite

    October 22, 2024
  • Taiwan envoy urges congressional action, warns of rising China threat after meeting lawmakers

    June 11, 2025
  • About us
  • Contacts
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Disclaimer: moneyrisetoday.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2025 moneyrisetoday.com | All Rights Reserved

Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock