• Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock
Editor's Pick

Historian who predicted almost every election since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in Trump-Harris matchup

by July 29, 2024
written by July 29, 2024

The ‘Keys to the White House’ are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.

Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right. 

Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key,’ and if ‘false,’ their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party’s candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic ‘key’ for President Biden’s incumbency – but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift. 

The ‘keys’ are as follows: 
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change, 
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman’s prediction. These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

There are still four more keys that have yet to be handed out. 

The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman says is notable given Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s place in the race.

Keys are also still in the air for having ‘no social unrest,’ as well as ‘foreign military failure’ and ‘foreign military success.’

If Democrats lose three more keys, then they would be the projected ‘losers,’ according to the election prognosticator’s formula.

A final prediction has not yet been made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes ‘a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.’

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016, and Biden in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
FTSE All-Share Index Live: Tech Companies Extend Gains
next post
Japanese eateries hike prices as tourist influx reaches record levels

related articles

Vance visits church where Christians believe Jesus was...

October 23, 2025

New poll in key showdown for Virginia governor...

October 23, 2025

Americans could face airport chaos if Dems don’t...

October 23, 2025

Inside Trump’s ultimatum that forced Netanyahu to the...

October 23, 2025

Vance rebukes Israel on ‘very stupid’ vote to...

October 23, 2025

Top Republican slams Katherine Clark for admitting suffering...

October 23, 2025

Vance calls Psaki comments about wife Usha ‘disgraceful’

October 23, 2025

Trump yet to endorse in VA governor’s race...

October 23, 2025

DAVID MARCUS: Trump’s ballroom is no vanity project,...

October 23, 2025

Examining the next threat from Communist China: Our...

October 23, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News, And Articles.


Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest News

  • Pedophiles could see death penalty under new House GOP bill: ‘Taken off the streets permanently’

    January 14, 2025
  • Republicans urge Trump to follow through on his plan to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities

    May 14, 2025
  • CleanSpark (CLSK) Stock: Soaring High, Buy or Beware?

    July 17, 2024
  • Bush’s War on Terror vs Trump’s Iran approach: How US Middle East strategy evolved

    June 23, 2025
  • White House confirms who was appointed as acting administrator of DOGE

    February 26, 2025

Popular Posts

  • 1

    Secret Service admits leaning on ‘state and local partners’ after claim it ignored Trump team’s past requests

    July 21, 2024
  • 2

    Five more House Democrats call on Biden to drop out, third US senator

    July 19, 2024
  • 3

    Elon and Vivek should tackle US funding for this boondoogle organization and score a multimillion dollar win

    December 4, 2024
  • 4

    Forex Profit Calculator: Maximize Your Trading Potential

    July 10, 2024
  • 5

    Biden calls to ‘lower the temperature’ then bashes Trump in NAACP speech

    July 17, 2024

Categories

  • Economy (829)
  • Editor's Pick (6,506)
  • Investing (634)
  • Stock (941)

Latest Posts

  • Oil and Natural Gas: Oil continues bullish toward $75.00

    August 7, 2024
  • As a cautious Kamala loses momentum, Democrats are panicking over a Trump win

    October 15, 2024
  • Hamas, who sparked war with Israel, says Trump’s rebuild Gaza plan is a ‘Recipe for creating chaos’

    February 5, 2025

Recent Posts

  • Vice President JD Vance to play key role with RNC to ‘fully enact MAGA mandate,’ grow GOP majority in 2026

    March 18, 2025
  • Over 150 lawmakers lend support to resistance movement inside Iran as regime’s proxies fall

    February 26, 2025
  • ‘Proud of our president’: Dems heap praise on Biden for decision to end 2024 campaign

    July 21, 2024

Editor’s Pick

  • Trump warns of ‘massive bloodshed’ if Hamas fails to agree to peace deal: ‘MOVE FAST’

    October 5, 2025
  • Trump-backed spending bill goes down in flames as shutdown looms

    December 20, 2024
  • Bitcoin price under new pressure at the start of the week

    August 12, 2024
  • About us
  • Contacts
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Disclaimer: moneyrisetoday.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2025 moneyrisetoday.com | All Rights Reserved

Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock