• Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock
Editor's Pick

October Fests: A potpourri of late election-year ‘surprises’ shake up most races, history shows

by October 26, 2024
written by October 26, 2024

The term ‘October surprise’ – denoting an unexpected plot twist late in an election cycle that typically throws a wrench in prognostications – first entered the U.S. lexicon in 1980.

1980s

During that contest between Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, Reagan was cognizant that a sudden release of 52 hostages in Iran could boost his opponent’s campaign.

To that time, Carter’s term was marked by long-term economic ‘malaise,’ foreign policy stumbles like the hostage crisis and other concerns.

Reagan’s campaign manager, former SEC Chairman William Casey, warned that Carter might be planning such an ‘October surprise’ and urged allies in the intelligence community to alert them to any premonitions of a hostage release.

Ultimately, no ‘surprise’ ever occurred, and Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei instead released the hostages after 444 days in captivity on the date Reagan was inaugurated in 1981, instead giving Republicans positive fodder.

As far as October surprises go, Reagan’s 1984 reelection campaign against former Vice President Fritz Mondale was quiet. The Republican went on to win a record 49 states, excluding Mondale’s Minnesota.

The same could be said for 1988, as Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis’ campaign appeared to flounder – particularly after he was mocked for wearing an oversized helmet while sitting on a tank in an ad.

If there had been a surprise, however, things may have been different far into the long-term, as Dukakis waxed during a 2008 interview that if he had ‘beaten the old man’ – then-Vice President George H.W. Bush – ‘we’d never heard of the kid, and we’d be in a lot better shape these days; so it’s all my fault.’

1990s

From 1988 to 2016 – except 2012 – a Clinton or a Bush had been a major party candidate in every cycle, and all but once the nominee.

In 1992, Iran returned to the campaign scene, as on Oct. 30, four days before the election, Reagan’s former Pentagon chief, Caspar Weinberger, was indicted for attempting to cover up Iran-Contra.

Bush the elder was vice president during that scandal, which surrounded allegations that the U.S. had funded Nicaraguan rebels known as ‘La Contrarrevolución’ with funds from arms sales to Tehran.

That December, Washington, D.C., federal Judge Thomas Hogan threw the case out on statute-of-limitations grounds. Bush later pardoned Weinberger.

After the 1992 October surprise, Bush was upset by Arkansas Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton. The candidacy of Texas billionaire businessman H. Ross Perot also contributed to Bush’s loss.

Following a relatively quiet 1996 cycle, the 2000 race between Bush the younger and then-Vice President Al Gore was marred by its own October surprise.

2000s

During the last week of the campaign, a report surfaced claiming that Bush had been arrested for DUI in Maine in 1976.

Bush ultimately confirmed he had been taken into custody after consuming beer at a Kennebunkport bar over Labor Day weekend that year, when he was 30 years old.

‘It’s an accurate story. I’m not proud of that… I admitted to the policeman I’d been drinking… I learned my lesson,’ Bush said at a Wisconsin rally.

Karl Rove, a top Bush aide who is now a Fox News contributor, suggested at the time that the October surprise may have cost his boss the popular vote in a handful of states.

Ultimately, Bush won – in one of the most closely-contested elections until the 2020 bout between former President Donald Trump and now-President Joe Biden.

Florida officials toiled over ‘hanging chads’ on paper ballots, while Republican consultant Roger Stone and then-Rep. John Sweeney, R-N.Y. – whom Bush later dubbed ‘Congressman Kick-Ass’ – were credited with staging the ‘Brooks Brothers Riot’ of dapper demonstrators at Miami-Dade’s election office.

In 2004, just before the election, Usama bin Laden was seen on video taking responsibility for 9/11 and calling Bush a dictator for his use of the Patriot Act. Then-Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., cited the video after his loss for bringing terrorism to the fore once again.

Wall Street powerhouse Lehman Brothers imploded in September 2008, and a recession of the likes not seen since 1929 enveloped the country, leaving Bush – and, by extension, Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona – with the blame. Disgraced CEO Dick Fuld was dragged before Congress.

And it was the charisma of then-Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., combined with slogans like ‘Hope,’ ‘Change’ and ‘Yes We Can’ that galvanized the youth vote. This surge of enthusiasm, set against the backdrop of the financial crisis – a major October surprise – is what undermined Republicans’ chances.

2010s

During the 2012 cycle, it was a Republican who was blamed for an October surprise that doomed the GOP nominee.

After Hurricane Sandy devastated the northeast, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie publicly gushed about Obama’s efforts during the recovery and was criticized for the warm reception he gave Obama, which purportedly translated into a last-minute boost for the incumbent.

Christie has long denied ever hugging Obama, as critics have claimed, calling it the ‘old, ‘nobody ever saw it because it didn’t happen’ hug’.’

At a 2016 town hall in Sussex, N.J., Christie questioned critics who still bring up the alleged chumminess, asking, ‘what would you have me do, exactly . . . say, ‘No, I’m for Mitt Romney, I don’t want you to come’ – or would you rather me wear my Romney sweatshirt while I was walking around with him – this is ridiculous stuff.’

In 2016, after originally declining to recommend that the Department of Justice prosecute Hillary Clinton that July for mishandling classified materials, FBI Director James Comey announced just days before the election that he was reexamining the Democratic nominee’s email saga.

Emails pertinent to the probe were suddenly found on New York Rep. Anthony Weiner’s computer. At the time, Weiner, a Democrat, was the estranged husband of Clinton confidante Huma Abedin.

Clinton narrowly lost several swing states and Trump commanded an upset to become the first non-politician or non-military officer elected president.

That victory came despite another October surprise that year – as a tape of Trump bragging to TV host and presidential cousin Billy Bush about being able to ‘grab’ women by their genitalia undeterred, sent shockwaves through the media.

2020s

A major October surprise occurred in 2020, when the New York Post broke the story surrounding the mixture of obscene imagery and documentation of foreign business dealings found on Hunter Biden’s laptop – after it was left at a Wilmington repair shop.

Social media organizations allegedly sought to stifle the ‘surprise,’ and a consortium of intelligence officials attested in a heavily critiqued letter that the report was Russian propaganda. 

The story was later confirmed to be accurate, though it came months after Joe Biden had upset Trump.

While not in October, Democrats faced a political earthquake in July when Joe Biden – following a widely mocked debate performance – decided against continuing his reelection bid, and the party chose Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place.

With an already contentious election cycle in 2024, it remains to be seen whether a major October surprise will reveal itself, or whether Americans will look back on an event that has already happened this month and deem it the quadrennial shocker.

Fox News’ Leonard Balducci contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
US made aware of Israel’s strike on Iran days in advance; IDF says mission complete
next post
Trump appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast for nearly three hours: Here are the top moments

related articles

Trump denounces court’s ‘political’ tariff decision, calls on...

May 30, 2025

President Trump teases ‘last day, but not really’...

May 30, 2025

State Dept says DOGE’s changes will be permanent...

May 30, 2025

Jill Biden should have to answer for ‘cover...

May 29, 2025

DOGE staffing shakeup as Elon Musk hangs up...

May 29, 2025

Hawley urges DOJ probe of Chinese trucking company

May 29, 2025

Less than half of DOGE-terminated contracts can be...

May 29, 2025

Flashback: Top five wildest moments from Elon Musk’s...

May 29, 2025

Sen Ron Johnson suggests he may not run...

May 29, 2025

Justice Department tells American Bar Association it will...

May 29, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News, And Articles.


Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest News

  • Trump must not repeat his Kim Jong Un mistake with Iran, security expert warns

    February 8, 2025
  • ‘UN80 Initiative’ appears to show world body’s panic over possible DOGE-like cuts

    March 12, 2025
  • ‘She’s really this dumb’: House Dem ripped after calling Trump ‘enemy of the United States’

    March 4, 2025
  • Argentina’s Milei rallies Venezuelan opposition despite Maduro’s ‘ugly’ attacks

    August 3, 2024
  • Dogecoin and Shiba Inu: Dogecoin has slowed its recovery

    August 14, 2024

Popular Posts

  • 1

    Secret Service admits leaning on ‘state and local partners’ after claim it ignored Trump team’s past requests

    July 21, 2024
  • 2

    Elon and Vivek should tackle US funding for this boondoogle organization and score a multimillion dollar win

    December 4, 2024
  • 3

    Forex Profit Calculator: Maximize Your Trading Potential

    July 10, 2024
  • 4

    Five more House Democrats call on Biden to drop out, third US senator

    July 19, 2024
  • 5

    Biden calls to ‘lower the temperature’ then bashes Trump in NAACP speech

    July 17, 2024

Categories

  • Economy (829)
  • Editor's Pick (4,723)
  • Investing (624)
  • Stock (773)

Latest Posts

  • Senate approves Peter Hoekstra as next US ambassador to Canada

    April 9, 2025
  • Scoop: Trump presses GOP rebels ahead of critical government shutdown vote

    March 10, 2025
  • New Trump-linked consulting firm launches in DC to navigate crypto, AI : ‘Trust, connected voice’

    April 30, 2025

Recent Posts

  • Ethereum price in a bullish rally at the start of this week

    July 29, 2024
  • Israel takes hard line against terrorists, allowing deportation of family members

    November 7, 2024
  • Republicans vie to replace Matt Gaetz in crowded 10-way special election primary

    January 28, 2025

Editor’s Pick

  • Scoop: Key conservative caucus draws red line on House budget plan

    January 30, 2025
  • U.S. homebuilders raise alarm over tariffs as sentiment falls to 5-month low

    February 19, 2025
  • Google employees pressure costumed execs at all-hands meeting for clarity on cost cuts

    November 1, 2024
  • About us
  • Contacts
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Disclaimer: moneyrisetoday.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2025 moneyrisetoday.com | All Rights Reserved

Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock