Over the next few days, minutes will seem like hours, hours like days, as Americans await the outcome of the presidential election that millions believe is all but existential for our nation.
But most of those people already voted, or cannot be swayed by Tuesday.
To fill the monotony, we will be treated, (or tricked) to countless graphs and charts, percentages of which demographics have already voted the most, which party is cannibalizing its votes, but who are these people left to sway?
I found two primary types of Americans, in my hundreds of interviews across America, who told me they were more likely to wait until the last minute to cast a ballot, if they would at all, and that brings us to type 1, possible non-voters.
By far, the richest potential vein of voters for both campaigns to mine are people who aren’t sure they will even vote, but who would ultimately side with their candidate if they do.
Back in mid-September, I visited a bar in Morgantown, West Virginia in which basically nobody I spoke with was planning to vote, but most of them, when really pressed, leaned heavily in favor of Donald Trump.
It was a kind of could-be-voter I met in many places across the Rust Belt, and they could determine the outcome of this election all by themselves.
What they were looking for, and what many may still be looking for this weekend, was to be convinced, presumably by Trump, that it really matters one way or the other, if they fill in their little ballot bubble.
If these Doubting Thomases can see proof that something Trump and Vance are planning to do will have a sincere and quick impact on their wellbeing, there is a chance to get them to the polls. What won’t sway them are attacks on Harris or far-left Democrats, because they are past the point of who is worse, they need to believe someone is meaningfully better.
The Harris version of the could be non-voter most often is a person, such as Gregg, in Philly, who I wrote about last week, and others like him in places like North Carolina, who don’t view Harris as sufficiently left wing.
These are typically people who abhor Trump, but view Harris as a tool of an only slightly more preferable political machine that ignores everyday people, and the idea that she is no more to the left than Joe Biden is a huge turn-off for them.
This explains the last week or so of calling Trump a fascist or rolling out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, on television to shore up the left flank. It also explains why Harris has not been able to effectively move to the center in this campaign.
These voters want red meat, expect the Harris campaign to give it to them.
The second group that holds out until the final day are traditionalists. These are people who never thought voting on Election Day was a problem, and so see no need to fix it by voting early. Some even see a real downside to it.
‘What if that Biden-Trump debate happened last week, after millions had voted,’ a woman in Pennsylvania mentioned to me recently,’and she has a point.
We know that in the past day of voters have tended to swing Republican. Many traditionalists lean right, after all, but there are Democrats in this group, and crucially, undecided voters – in small numbers, yes, but out there.
We could also call these ‘closing argument voters’ and they very well could be affected by last-minute developments, a November surprise, if you will.
One such development is the abysmal Friday jobs report that showed just 12,000 thousand jobs created in October. That’s like one fifth of a football stadium’s capacity, and could make some of these last minute deciders say, ‘OK, that’s it.’
On the other hand, Harris certainly hopes that accusations of anti-Puerto Rican racism or lies about Trump saying he wants to use the Army against ordinary citizens, will have a similar effect, a final straw for those on the fence.
Democrats dream of that long-awaited moment when enough voters say, ‘I’ve had it, Trump is flat out unacceptable,’ but Lucy has placed that football on the ground many times in the age of Donald Trump.
These are the voters who are left to sway. There may not be many of them but they may be able to decide the election. Both camps must now fight for them hour by hour, minute by minute, as the final clock runs down.
