Many U.S. retailers are hoping to put the fall quarter behind them. The decisive outcome of this month’s presidential election, which showed a GOP sweep, seems to be giving them the fuel to do so.
On Tuesday, Best Buy reported one of its worst three-month stretches of the past decade, something CEO Corie Barry blamed in part on the ‘distraction’ of the presidential contest, alongside an overall more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
But she said the company has begun to see holiday sales momentum now that the vote is over — with particular demand for computers, tablets and sales in its services department.
“We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is also willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is new, compelling technology,” Barry said in a release.
Best Buy’s latest results — representing its worst quarterly profit ‘miss’ of estimates in more than a decade — capture the uncertain environment most retailers are experiencing.
While consumers are still grappling with higher prices on everyday items and groceries, surveys and commentary suggest any uncertainty brought about by the election has lifted over the past couple of weeks.
Gallup’s monthly Economic Confidence Index survey saw a nine-point jump this month compared with October. Although the report still shows most Americans believe economic conditions are ‘getting worse’ overall, the current reading of -17 is the best since a -12 reading in August 2021.
The improvement was driven by a six-percentage-point drop in ‘poor’ ratings, while 36% of survey respondents said the economy is getting better, compared with 32%% in October. Overall, 55% said it’s getting worse — down from 62% last month.
Gallup’s survey was conducted between Nov. 6 and Nov. 20.
The index’s improvements were heavily partisan: Republicans’ scoring of the economy soared 29 points during the survey period, while Democrats’ dropped 10 points — though notably, Democrats still hold a net positive rating of the economy compared with both Republicans and independents.
A separate monthly consumer-confidence report released Tuesday also surged to its highest level in nearly 18 months, with optimism about family finances over the next six months hitting a new all-time high.
The widely followed survey from The Conference Board, a business nonprofit, also saw the lowest proportion of consumers anticipating a recession in more than two years, while inflation expectations fell to the lowest measure since March 2020. Job availability expectations, meanwhile, reached their highest level in almost three years.
Among those expecting stronger holiday sales Tuesday was Abercrombie & Fitch, which continues to see a sales renaissance. The trendy apparel chain now expects holiday quarter sales growth of 5% to 7%, ahead of the 4.8% growth that analysts had expected, CNBC reported. It also lifted its sales growth guidance for the full year.
Burlington likewise noted a strong start to holiday sales in a Tuesday earnings release, with the outerwear retailer stating it was ‘optimistic’ about its prospects for the upcoming quarter, while maintaining a ‘cautious’ outlook overall.
The sunnier if still cautious outlook is resonating on Wall Street: According to CNBC, a retail-focused stock-tracker traded on the New York Stock Exchange is up 10% month to date and is heading for its best month since February.
Last week, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve announced its quarterly survey of dozens of economic forecasters now showed the U.S. economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.2% in the coming three months, and 1.9% in the first quarter of 2025. That’s up from the predictions of 1.7 percent in the last survey.
‘The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago,’ it said.
