• Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock
Investing

A tricky start to 2025

by January 9, 2025
written by January 9, 2025

It’s fair to say that, as far as US stock indices were concerned, last year ended on a whimper rather than a bang.

Yet overall it was a fine performance for the US majors, which saw the broad-based S&P 500 gain 23% in 2024, following on from a 24% gain in 2023.

This was the first time that the index had recorded 20%-plus advances for two years in succession since the Nineties when it recorded four such back-to-back years (and only narrowly missed it being five) from 1995 to 1998.

So, based on what happened back then, there’s perhaps at least one reason to think that 2025 could turn out to be another bumper year in terms of stock market performance.

It’s also worth noting that it’s been tech/growth stocks that have made the biggest contribution to this performance, in the same way that IT, telecoms, and growth did back twenty-five years ago. 

Looking at the NASDAQ 100, which strips out financial corporations, and is highly focused on technology, new industries, and growth, last year was also an impressive one which saw the index jump 25%, so slightly outpacing the S&P 500, also a significant number of tech behemoths, including all the ‘Magnificent Seven’.

But it was 2023 which was, on the face of it, a truly extraordinary year for the NASDAQ.

The index more than doubled, rising 53%, and this while the US Federal Reserve was still tightening monetary policy.

But things have to be put into perspective: It’s worth remembering that the tech giants were at the vanguard of a slump throughout the previous year, one that saw the NASDAQ 100 fall by a third. 

2022 was the year when the US Federal Reserve finally began to respond to a spike in inflation, which had not turned out to be as transitory as they had insisted it was.

In an effort to get ahead of the problem, the Fed raised rates by 425 basis points between March and the end of 2022 and continued with an additional 100 basis points in the first half of 2023.

This was arguably less of a headwind for tech stocks than old-school value stocks.

The tech giants were typically awash with cash, with little need to borrow or refinance at higher rates.

But this wasn’t enough to counter increased concerns that the tech sector was viewed as richly valued, if not extremely overvalued. 

Springing back to the present we hear similar concerns.

Of course, there are so many differences, including that the Fed finally cut rates in September, beginning with a bumper 50 basis point cut, and following that up with 25 basis points in November and December.

But the prospect for further significant easing this year has fallen substantially.

The December decision was deemed a ‘hawkish rate cut’, and recent strength in US economic data has seen the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note top 4.70%, revisiting highs from back in April and sending the dollar soaring. 

None of this is helping US equities, particularly as the sharp rally in bond yields has taken investors by surprise.

If the 10-year continues up towards 5.0%, then that could be a real problem for equities going forward, even if these higher borrowing costs are due to future growth expectations, rather than fears over inflation and high Treasury debt issuance due to record budget deficits.

Alternatively, if yields retreat from current levels, just as they did back in April, say, because the Trump Team does manage to cut spending, then US stock indices could bounce back on a wave of positive investor sentiment.

(David Morrison is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)

The post A tricky start to 2025 appeared first on Invezz

0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
Alcohol warning regulations hit struggling restaurants hard: here’s what you need to know
next post
RGTI, IONQ, QBTS plunge on Nvidia CEO Huang’s comments: should you buy the dip?

related articles

Asian markets open: Nikkei, Hang Seng fall on...

June 12, 2025

Aluminum and steel tariffs spark rise in secondary...

June 12, 2025

Airbus sees aviation boom ahead, global fleet to...

June 12, 2025

US-China trade talks and Washington’s decade-long effort to...

June 12, 2025

Europe markets open: Stoxx 600 dips as UK...

June 12, 2025

UK GDP falls by 0.3% in April as...

June 12, 2025

Gordon Brothers buys Poundland; pledges £80 mn for...

June 12, 2025

Air India plane crash: London-bound flight with 242...

June 12, 2025

Air India plane crash live update: Indian President...

June 12, 2025

Copper remains supported for now even as China...

June 12, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News, And Articles.


Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

Latest News

  • Trump addresses nation on ‘spectacular military success’ of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

    June 22, 2025
  • Trump announces MAHA advocate Casey Means will be new surgeon general nominee

    May 7, 2025
  • Trump-foe Adam Schiff dismisses Tulsi Gabbard’s declassified Russia collusion intelligence as ‘dishonest’

    July 24, 2025
  • German conservative leader elected chancellor after historic first-round loss

    May 6, 2025
  • Lawmakers eye ‘low hanging fruit’ for government efficiency after first DOGE Caucus meeting

    December 18, 2024

Popular Posts

  • 1

    Secret Service admits leaning on ‘state and local partners’ after claim it ignored Trump team’s past requests

    July 21, 2024
  • 2

    Five more House Democrats call on Biden to drop out, third US senator

    July 19, 2024
  • 3

    Elon and Vivek should tackle US funding for this boondoogle organization and score a multimillion dollar win

    December 4, 2024
  • 4

    Forex Profit Calculator: Maximize Your Trading Potential

    July 10, 2024
  • 5

    Biden calls to ‘lower the temperature’ then bashes Trump in NAACP speech

    July 17, 2024

Categories

  • Economy (829)
  • Editor's Pick (6,247)
  • Investing (634)
  • Stock (935)

Latest Posts

  • DOJ reveals it has Biden transcripts at issue in classified docs case after initial denial

    July 23, 2024
  • Rubio announces visa revocations on Brazilian judge for ‘political witch hunt’ against ex-president Bolsonaro

    July 19, 2025
  • Ex-Obama official predicts Harris will seek new Iran nuclear deal: ‘Has to be the goal’

    August 27, 2024

Recent Posts

  • House Republicans introduce bill to repurchase Panama Canal after Trump raises concerns of Chinese control

    January 9, 2025
  • Meet the team Trump picked to negotiate ending the Russia-Ukraine war

    February 17, 2025
  • Trump and Zelenskyy war of words heats up even as US looks to wind down war in Ukraine

    February 20, 2025

Editor’s Pick

  • Special Counsel Weiss expected to release Hunter Biden report as soon as next week

    January 9, 2025
  • Supreme Court to hear Republican challenge that could shake up US elections

    June 30, 2025
  • Trump trial stemming from Jack Smith’s probe delayed past Election Day

    September 5, 2024
  • About us
  • Contacts
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Disclaimer: moneyrisetoday.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Copyright © 2025 moneyrisetoday.com | All Rights Reserved

Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Money Rise Today – Investing and Stock News
  • Investing
  • Stock