Voters in two states are casting general election ballots for the first time since November, when they sent President Donald Trump back to the White House.
Wisconsin will choose a new justice on the state Supreme Court, which has a 4-3 liberal-leaning majority. Florida is holding special elections in two deep-red districts last held by Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz.
At stake: court decisions over abortion, unions and voting rights in Wisconsin, and the size of the Republican majority in the U.S. House.
Democrats have been counting down to this moment.
Off-year and special elections are typically low-turnout affairs, which, in the Trump era, has often given Democratic-leaning voters a louder voice.
That could deliver liberals a win and an ongoing majority in Wisconsin, and/or a strong performance in the Florida races.
Even so, Republicans are favored to win those two Florida races, and a cash injection from Elon Musk has kept the Wisconsin race competitive.
Whatever happens, it is too early to draw conclusions about either party’s long-term prospects. The electorates that decide the midterms and beyond look different and won’t cast ballots for more than a year and a half.
Wisconsin
Key race
In the state Supreme Court race, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel look to replace outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, the court’s longest-serving member, who announced last April that she would not seek a fourth 10-year term.
Wisconsin Supreme Court seats are officially nonpartisan, but voters as well as the state’s party establishments routinely rally behind certain candidates based on their judicial philosophies and records.
Crawford has the backing of Democrats and progressives, including an endorsement this week from former President Barack Obama. Schimel has support from Republicans and conservatives, including Trump and Elon Musk.
Why it matters
This will be the first indication of the state’s political climate since Trump recaptured the White House.
Liberal-leaning justices gained a 4-3 majority on the court in 2023 for the first time in 15 years after Justice Janet Protasiewicz won a seat previously held by a conservative jurist. Bradley’s retirement gives conservatives an opportunity to retake the majority ahead of high-profile cases on abortion, unions and voting rights.
Turnout and early voting
As of March 1, there were more than 3.8 million active registered voters in Wisconsin. Voters in the state do not register by party.
About 1.8 million votes were cast in the 2023 spring election for state Supreme Court. That was 51% of registered voters and roughly 40% of the voting age population at the time.
About 25% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day.
As of Monday, more than 674,000 ballots had been cast before Election Day.
Counties to watch
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win by large margins in the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (home of Madison), while Republicans win by wide margins in the smaller, more rural counties that stretch across most of the state.
Republican candidates also tend to rely on strong showings in the WOW counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee, which help counter Democratic advantages in urban areas.
Results
Expect first reported results shortly after 9 p.m. ET, when polls close.
Election night tabulation ended at 2:30 a.m. ET in the 2023 spring election and at 5:47 a.m. ET in the November general election, both with more than 98% of the total vote counted.
Recounts
Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but a trailing candidate may request one if the winning vote margin is less than a percentage point.
Florida
Key races
6th Congressional District
The 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections.
In GOP Rep. Michael Waltz’s old district, the candidates are Republican state Sen. Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator in Osceola County.
Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the boundaries of the Palm Coast-area U.S. House seat he hopes to fill. He won a three-way primary on Jan. 28 with Trump’s endorsement.
Trump carried the district in 2024 with 65% of the vote. Waltz received about 67% of the vote in his final House re-election bid.
1st Congressional District
The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state.
Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running to replace Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House last year.
Patronis is the state’s chief financial officer. He received Trump’s endorsement in a crowded primary. Valimont is a gun control activist.
Trump received about 68% of the district vote in 2024, slightly outperforming the 66% Gaetz received in his re-election bid.
Why they matter
Control of the U.S. House is not at stake, but the outcome of the special elections could give congressional Republicans some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. Republicans hold 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority in a fully seated House. Democrats hold 213 seats, with two additional vacant seats most recently held by Democratic lawmakers.
Meanwhile, Democrats hope that strong fundraising in both districts is an indicator the races will be more competitive than they were in the last election just five months ago.
Turnout and early voting
Voter participation tends to be much higher in presidential general elections than in elections held at other times.
As of today, about 205,000 ballots had been cast across the two districts, about 53% from Republicans and about 33% from Democrats.
Counties to watch
6th Congressional District
Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received about 74% of the vote. Their worst county in comparison was Volusia, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Waltz slightly outperformed Trump in every county in the district.
1st Congressional District
The part of Walton County that falls within the 1st District is the most reliably Republican of the four counties. Escambia is the least Republican in comparison, although Trump and Gaetz still received 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
Results
Expect first reported results in the 6th District shortly after 7 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night in the 2024 general election was just before midnight, with about 99% of the vote counted.
In the 1st District, expect results shortly after 8 p.m. ET. The 2024 general election night tabulation ended at 1:33 a.m. ET with about 99% of the total vote counted.
Recounts
Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
