It’s hard enough to know what you want. It’s even harder to know what others want. But what if what you want hinges on what somebody else wants…and they aren’t sure what they want?
Hence the conundrum now facing Congressional Republicans as they try to approve the ‘big, beautiful bill.’
GOPers are waiting for President Trump to push for very specific items to be in the bill – or fall by the wayside.
Congressional Republicans are aligned closely with the President and willing to bend to his wishes. But it complicates things when Trump calls for what he termed a ‘tiny’ tax increase for the super wealthy.
‘People would love to do it. Rich people. I would love to do it, frankly. Giving us something up top in order to make people in the middle income and the lower income brackets [have] more. So, it’s really a redistribution,’ said the president.
First, President Trump suggested a form of rations, limiting how many pencils kids need or how many dolls a little girl should have. That puzzled free marketeers in the GOP.
Now, to use his phrase, ‘redistribution.’
You understand how much heartburn this gives capitalists in Congress. But what’s worse is the mixed messaging.
When writing on Truth Social about creating a higher tax bracket for the wealthy, the president muddled his instructions for lawmakers:
‘Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!’ declared President Trump.
This exasperated Congressional Republicans who oppose raising any taxes – a long-held tenet of the Republican Party.
In another political universe, taxing the wealthy would be – at best – a trial balloon. So, most Congressional Republicans decided it was time for this to pop.
‘No, we are not going to do tax increases,’ said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., on Fox Business.
‘We don’t want to raise taxes on anybody. I mean, we’re about lowering taxes on Americans,’ said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., on Fox.
But President Trump’s Republican Party is very different from the Reagan Republican Party. The GOP shifts to where Trump wants it. Just consider the approach to tariffs compared to free trade.
President Trump broadened the party’s base in the last election. The GOP is no longer dominated by big business, titans of commerce and the well-to-do. Part of the president’s appeal was the blue-collar coalition he cobbled together. And his fundamental economic message on taxes resonated with millions of voters. That’s why his top advisers say Trump is sticking to campaign promises.
‘President Trump has made it clear that he has his priorities, like no tax on tips. No tax on overtime. No tax on Social Security,’ said National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Fox.
However, revenue generated from new taxes on the wealthy could help cover the cost of spending cuts.
‘We need to see what we need to do with the math to make sure that we are doing the country well fiscally and that we don’t just add to the debt,’ said Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb.
But Republicans are frustrated after House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., shrank the size of the tax cuts and spending reductions.
The tax breaks were supposed to be around $4.5 trillion at one point. They dwindled to $4 trillion. They were angling to lock in $2 trillion in tax cuts. They’re scaled back to $1.5 trillion.
‘Republicans talk a big game in campaigns,’ lamented House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas. ‘If we’re not able to bend the curve on mandatory spending, then we will send a very bad signal to the bond markets.’
But regardless of what’s in the package, the White House is expecting Congressional Republicans to ultimately vote yes on the ‘big, beautiful bill.’
‘The president has great political instincts. That’s why he’s back in the Oval Office,’ said White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
But that’s what Congressional Republicans found so vexing. The president may have great political instincts. But the marching orders were far from clear.
Trump conceded that a tax hike may be controversial politically.
Congressional Republicans suffer from political PTSD. They remember another Republican President who made one of the most famous political promises of all time. And then broke it.
‘No new taxes,’ intoned the late President George H.W. Bush in his address to a Joint Session of Congress in 1989.
But Bush famously reversed himself as part of a 1990 budget pact. That was not necessarily the reason ‘Bush 41’ lost reelection in 1992 to former President Clinton. And President Trump was sure enough to point that out on social media.
‘The Radical Left Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, ‘Read my lips,’ the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the Election. NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election!’ wrote Trump.
The ‘Perot Effect’ certainly deprived George H.W. Bush of a second term more than breaking the ‘no new taxes’ promise. But that doesn’t mean that Republicans aren’t skittish about voting for tax increases.
And regardless, the legislative product that emerged from the Ways and Means Committee markup this week lacked the type of tax hike dangled by President Trump.
That said, Congressional Republicans certainly have their opinions about what they think of the developing ‘big, beautiful bill.’
‘A growing number of us, we don’t want smoke and mirrors. We want real cuts,’ said Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C. ‘$2 trillion (in cuts) is really a teardrop in the ocean.’
‘You’ve got front-loaded tax [cuts]. Backloaded spending restraint,’ groused Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas. ‘Medicaid reforms and work requirements don’t kick in for four years.’
‘It’ll be ironic and sad in a way that conservatives will be voting for the largest increase in the debt ceiling,’ mused Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. ‘I have a feeling it’s going to be wimpy on the spending cuts and maybe a little wimpy on the taxes, too.’
So, at least some Republicans grasp what they want in the bill. And they’re willing to take direction from the president. That’s why clear direction from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. will be key next week as the House tries to pass the measure.
Members will say they can’t vote for the bill because it has this or excludes that. But they just might be able to vote yea if President Trump knows what he wants – and makes that clear to lawmakers.
