HSBC’s senior research analyst Rajesh Kumar believes Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) “might have an edge” over rival Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) heading into 2026.
His remarks arrive shortly after the Danish pharmaceutical giant received FDA approval for its oral weight-loss pill – an announcement that triggered a sharp rally in NVO shares on Tuesday.
Despite the surge, however, Novo stock remains down by some 50% compared to its year-to-date high.
Does Novo Nordisk stock outshine LLY for 2026?
Kumar now sees NVO shares as more attractive than Eli Lilly primarily because, efficacy-wise, the oral Wegovy “looks better” than its US rival’s product – at least on the basis of clinical trials.
This could help the European multinational outpace LLY in the rapidly growing obesity market, he told clients.
Trial data showed patients on oral Wegovy lost an average of 16.6% of body weight in 12 months, compared to 12.4% only for Lilly’s competing “orforglipron”.
Moreover, the tolerability profile also came out favourable, which could improve patient adherence – Kumar told clients in a research note today.
All in all, as physicians prioritize efficacy, oral Wegovy could become the preferred option, giving Novo Nordisk a competitive advantage in capturing market share early.
First mover advantage to push NVO shares higher
FDA approval for Novo’s pill grants it a head start in the world’s largest pharmaceutical market.
The NYSE-listed behemoth now plans on rolling out oral Wegovy in the US next month (January), months before Eli Lilly even receives FDA clearance for its competing product.
This timing advantage positions NVO to establish brand loyalty and distribution channels ahead of its rival.
Plus, pricing strategies, including savings programs and partnerships with telehealth providers, may further accelerate adoption, HSBC’s Rajesh Kumar argued in his latest report.
In short, experts view the FDA approval as a “Christmas gift” for those invested in Novo Nordisk shares – positioning the company to capitalize on New Year’s weight-loss resolutions.
By moving first, NVO can lock in early demand and strengthen its foothold in the rapidly growing obesity market.
Novo has a valuation advantage over Eli Lilly stock
The Wegovy pill isn’t just about weight management – it also carries approval for reducing cardiovascular risks such as strokes and heart attacks.
According to Wall Street analysts, this dual benefit broadens its appeal to physicians and insurers, making it more than a lifestyle drug.
On Tuesday, experts at Silkeborg-headquartered Jyske Bank called the approval “a redemption for investors,” noting it may transform the firm’s growth trajectory after a difficult year of layoffs and guidance cuts.
Finally, NVO stock seems to outshine Eli Lilly for long-term investors also because it’s trading at a much more compelling valuation of about 13.5x forward earnings – versus nearly 45x for LLY.
Put the valuation advantage together with the headstart it’s secured in the US obesity market, and Novo Nordisk immediately starts to look like a must-have for 2026.
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