Russian wheat exports have surged in December, estimated by SovEcon at 3.9 million metric tons (mmt).
This figure surpasses the 3.4 mmt exported a year earlier and nearly matches the record high of 4.1 mmt set in 2022, driven by accelerated shipments due to improving export margins.
The profitability of Russian wheat exports saw a notable improvement between November and December, primarily driven by a combination of falling domestic prices and maintained stability in international export quotes, according to SovEcon.
Falling domestic prices as the core catalyst
During this period, the average domestic price for Russian wheat experienced a significant decline, dropping by 5% to approximately 13,200 rubles per metric ton.
This decrease in the internal cost of the commodity was the critical factor that shifted the financial landscape for exporters.
Previously, many Russian wheat exporters were operating with negative profit margins.
However, the substantial drop in domestic acquisition costs effectively counteracted the previous financial pressures.
Consequently, exporter margins moved out of negative territory and began registering a profit of several dollars per ton.
This newfound profitability is expected to incentivise higher export volumes and bolster Russia’s competitive standing in the global wheat market, despite ongoing geopolitical and logistical challenges.
The stable international prices provided a firm revenue anchor, making the reduction in domestic prices the primary catalyst for the improvement in export economics.
Increased sales of wheat by Russian farmers led to a drop in domestic prices, the agricultural consultancy said.
Between September and October, farmers sold a record 19.5 mmt of wheat, surpassing the previous year’s total by 2.0 mmt.
This surge in sales was largely driven by the necessity for many producers to sell their grain, even at reduced prices, to meet loan obligations and fund the costs associated with winter planting operations.
Strong global demand and future forecast
SovEcon said:
Demand for Russian wheat from key importers remains strong.
The global appetite for Russian wheat continues to show remarkable resilience, driven by its competitive pricing and steady supply, particularly among crucial importing nations.
This demand was notably strong in November, as evidenced by significant procurement figures.
Iran, a perennial key buyer, executed a substantial purchase of 0.9 mmt of Russian wheat in November.
This volume represents the highest single-month purchase by Iran since the beginning of 2022, signalling a renewed reliance on Russia to meet its domestic grain requirements.
Turkey, another critical hub for Russian grain exports, has also drastically accelerated its purchasing pace. In just the first half of the current season, Turkey has already imported 2.8 mmt of Russian wheat.
This figure is highly indicative of robust demand when benchmarked against the entirety of the previous season, during which Turkey imported a total of 2.9 mmt.
Russian wheat exports in November hit a record 5.1 mmt, an increase from 4.1 mmt the previous year. October’s exports were also strong at 5.5 mmt, only slightly under the 5.6 mmt record set the year before.
“In recent months, Russia has been gradually ramping up wheat shipments,” SovEcon said.
Despite a slow start to the season, cumulative exports for July–December are still estimated at 26.0 mmt, a 2.4 mmt year-over-year decrease, he added.
The latest public forecast from SovEcon, issued in November, estimates Russia’s wheat exports for the 2025-26 season at 44.2 mmt.
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