Nvidia stock traded lower early on Thursday as investors grappled with mixed and sometimes contradictory signals over how close the chip maker is to resuming exports of its artificial intelligence hardware to China.
Shares of the semiconductor giant were down around 2% at $185.05 in midday trading.
Nvidia’s stock has become increasingly sensitive to developments surrounding China, where a resumption of sales represents one of the most significant near-term catalysts for the company.
China export hopes face fresh uncertainty
Optimism around a restart of Chinese sales had been building since last month, when President Donald Trump said his administration would allow shipments of Nvidia’s H200 chip to China, provided the company gives the US government a 25% cut of sales.
The announcement raised expectations that a prolonged revenue drought from China could soon ease.
However, those hopes were shaken this week after The Information reported that Chinese authorities had asked some domestic technology companies to stop placing new orders for Nvidia’s H200 chips.
According to the report, regulators are reviewing whether the chips should ultimately be allowed into the country and under what conditions, suggesting a pause rather than an outright rejection.
The report added that Beijing is keen to prevent Chinese firms from stockpiling US-made chips before a final regulatory decision is reached.
Selective approvals under consideration
Complicating the picture further, Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Chinese authorities are preparing to approve some imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter.
Under the proposal, officials are said to be considering allowing purchases for select commercial uses, while maintaining strict prohibitions on sensitive areas.
According to the report, the chips would be barred from use by the military, critical infrastructure, sensitive government agencies and state-owned enterprises, reflecting ongoing security concerns.
Similar restrictions have previously been applied to other foreign technology products, including devices from Apple and memory chips from Micron Technology.
Requests from restricted organisations could still be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Huang strikes optimistic tone
Despite the mixed reports, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang struck an upbeat note this week while speaking at the CES trade show in Las Vegas.
Huang said demand for the H200 chip is “very high” and that he does not expect major issues from the Chinese government.
Nvidia already has orders for more than two million H200 chips at a list price of about $27,000 each, implying roughly $54 billion in potential revenue, Reuters previously reported.
However, amid the regulatory uncertainty, Chinese authorities have reportedly asked some technology companies to pause orders while they determine how many domestically produced chips firms should buy.
Nvidia, for its part, is reportedly asking for full upfront payment on orders during this period of uncertainty.
Huang acknowledged that the process now hinges on administrative details rather than high-level policy decisions.
“President Trump has already said that the H200s are licensed to be exported, and now we have to go through the mechanics of that,” Huang said.
“Once we get that done, I’m expecting the purchase orders to arrive.”
He added that Nvidia does not expect any formal public statement from Beijing, suggesting that approval would be signalled through the flow of orders rather than official announcements.
“We learn about everything through purchase orders. We’re not expecting any press releases or any large declarations,” Huang said.
High stakes after past policy shocks
The uncertainty underscores how exposed Nvidia remains to abrupt policy shifts.
Last year, the company took a $5.5 billion inventory write-down after a sudden US ban blocked sales of its H20 chip to China, illustrating how quickly regulatory changes can translate into financial pain.
The H200, Nvidia’s second-most advanced chip, is far more powerful than the H20, offering roughly six times the performance.
For Chinese technology firms racing to build large-scale AI systems, access to the H200 would represent a significant leap in computing capability.
For now, investors appear to be waiting for clearer signals from both Washington and Beijing.
Until the mechanics of licensing and the scope of Chinese approvals are settled, Nvidia’s stock is likely to remain volatile, reflecting the enormous revenue potential — and equally large policy risks — tied to its China business.
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