Eight weeks from today, millions of Americans will choose their next congressperson. Poll after poll tells us that the state of the economy will shape their choice: it’s the top issue for voters by a wide margin and most Americans are in a sour mood about it.
That’s not the end of the story.
We’ve learned from previous elections that voters consider a wide range of issues when they vote. The “economy” has different meanings to voters. Optimism doesn’t win over voters on pocketbook issues. And this year, while voters aren’t happy with President Donald Trump’s economy, that hasn’t yet made them enthusiastic about the Democratic alternative.
These are the four rules to think about as we inch closer to the midterms.
Meantime, Democrats inch closer to victory as the Power Rankings takes a fresh look at congressional races in Missouri and Ohio.
1. The economy is central to elections, but watch for related issues
The importance of the economy to elections has been a golden rule since the early ’90s, when Democratic strategist James Carville famously cited “the economy, stupid” as the most important focus for a campaign.
Did you know it was only one of three orders he gave to candidates that cycle?
The economy has been a top-three issue throughout the Trump era, including the last two midterm elections, where it was the most important issue for 47% of voters (2022) and 18% of voters (2018).
If that 2018 figure feels low, it’s because healthcare (26%) and immigration (23%) finished ahead. That year, Republicans lost 42 seats.
No wonder another of Carville’s three rules for candidates was “don’t forget health care.” (The third was “change vs more of the same.”)
HAKEEM JEFFRIES REJECTS MEDICARE FOR ALL, DSA AGENDA AS RO KHANNA CALLS HEALTH PLAN ‘MOST IMPORTANT PRIORITY’
The state of the economy bleeds into other major concerns, including healthcare. But even a strong economy wasn’t enough to get the GOP out of that election unscathed. And healthcare looms as another important issue this year: it’s ranked close behind the economy in most surveys this year.
2. The economy means different things to voters
When pollsters ask about voters’ views on the economy, they usually ask how important “the economy” or “the state of the economy” is, or whether they’re satisfied with Trump’s performance on that issue.
In some important ways, Trump has a strong economic record. Just last week, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs, about triple what economists had expected. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. The stock market also continues to grow, even as Iran and tariffs drive volatility.
These have helped keep Trump’s overall economic approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s in multiple polls this summer.
When pollsters ask only about Americans’ personal economic situation, things look tougher.
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In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, 32% of voters said they approved of Trump on the economy. But only a quarter approved of his performance on cost of living and 24% approved of him on inflation and prices.
The costs of gas, food and other basic goods are the major factors driving this discrepancy. If Democrats deliver a strong result in November, it will come down to a presidential approval rating in the mid-20s on these issues.
3. Voters see through economic optimism
In 2022, President Joe Biden faced similar headwinds: the economy was rebounding, especially if you looked at unemployment, but inflation hovered around the 8% mark all year. Gas prices came in around $3.75.
The Biden administration kept selling the positives. First, inflation was “transitory.” Then the president argued that “zero percent inflation” from one month to another was a win, despite the high annualized rate. Senior officials took victory laps on the unemployment rate.
Voters rejected this messaging at the ballot box, delivering the House to the GOP after a net loss of nine Democratic seats and handing Biden a net approval rating of -23 points on the economy.
Today, headline inflation is less than half that at 3.4%, while gas prices are a little higher at $4.15. Trump’s net approval on the economy currently sits at -33 points.
The Trump administration is running a familiar playbook. Vice President JD Vance said last week that gas prices could be worse if not for the Trump administration. As Fox’s Gillian Turner noted on “Special Report,” there are similarities between a comment like that and the statements Biden officials made four years earlier.
These optimistic visions are likely to remain a tough sell to voters.
4. Economic dissatisfaction doesn’t make voters any happier about the alternative
It’s easy to look at all this and think the Democrats are in for a big night in November. That’s certainly a possibility.
But polls keep showing that voters are just as discouraged by the left’s economic messaging.
FOX NEWS POLL: MOST RATE THE ECONOMY NEGATIVELY, INCLUDING HALF OF REPUBLICANS
Right now, Democrats are offering voters competing economic visions. Some, like Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson, want a revolution that starts with “Medicare-for-all” and higher taxes on the wealthy. Others say they want to undo Trump’s agenda while keeping the core of America’s economic system in place.
It’s not yet clear whether these visions are unappealing to voters or whether the contrast between them is the problem.
Either way, in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 36% of voters say Republicans are the better party to handle the economy, while 37% prefer the Democrats. The poll has a ±3.3pt margin of error.
That’s not encouraging for Team Blue.
If the Republicans hold relatively steady in November – also a possibility in this forecast – those results will explain why.
House: Democrats remain in the lead as two seats fall away from the GOP
Democrats are still the favorites to take the House this November, with 212 seats in their columns to the GOP’s 206. There are 17 seats that are so close they could go either way.
Those seats tend to swing in one direction as votes get counted. On a good night for Democrats, that means 229 seats, while a good night for the GOP would still see them hold onto their current House majority.
(A “great” night for either party would mean winning some of the seats that lean toward the opponent in this forecast. The Power Rankings puts seats in the “lean” category when they’re highly competitive, but one party has an edge.)
The changes in this forecast, which see two seats fall out of the GOP’s columns, all come from Missouri and Ohio.
Missouri: redistricting ruling flips one seat back to the Democrats and keeps another in contention
Republicans picked up redistricting wins across the southeast after the Supreme Court’s ruling narrowing the scope of the Voting Rights Act this year.
That includes Missouri, where Republican lawmakers redrew the Kansas City-based 5th District, currently held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won re-election there by 24 points, to include more White, rural areas.
That put the district into the Solid R column in the initial Power Rankings this year.
Last Thursday, the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked the new districts from being used unless voters approve them in a referendum. The order restores the state’s existing map, flipping Cleaver’s district back to Solid D.
MISSOURI AG FILES PETITION ASKING SUPREME COURT TO REVIVE TRUMP-BACKED REDISTRICTING MAP
(It also makes Missouri’s 2nd District more competitive. The rankings already had that district at Likely R; we’re keeping it there for now.)
Missouri has appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could rule on the state ruling quickly. For now, Cleaver holds on to the 5th District.
Ohio: Sherrod and scandal make the state more competitive
Three races in Ohio are heading leftward.
First, Ohio’s 7th District, held by Republican Max Miller. The congressman’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, has accused Miller of physically abusing both her and their young daughter. Miller denies the allegations and has suggested Moreno has mental health issues.
Moreno is the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who Miller says is trying to take down his political career.
The 7th District was already close for the ‘likely’ column, and after these headlines and some prodding from Republicans to drop out, it’s become highly competitive. It moves from Likely R to Toss Up.
Meanwhile, in the southwest of the state, watch the 10th and 15th Districts, held by Republicans Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively.
These shouldn’t be part of the Democratic playbook in a regular election year: they’re predominantly White and middle-class.
Turner’s 10th District contains Dayton and some suburban areas; Carey’s 15th includes some suburban and exurban parts around Columbus and stretches to the rural south.
As the Fox News Poll has shown twice now, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running a strong race for Senate; up eight points at 53% in May and August. That kind of performance could create a closer race than Republicans would like.
The “Mikes” have the clear advantage, but victory isn’t a sure thing. The 10th and 15th Districts move from Solid R to Likely R.
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