With six weeks to go until Election Day and early voting already underway in a handful of states, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans may be in for some setbacks in the midterms.
As it defends its fragile House and Senate majorities, the GOP is fighting political history, which has traditionally seen the president’s party lose congressional seats during the midterms. It’s also battling high costs at the grocery stores and gas pumps tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, as well as President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
But Democrats are saddled with their own issues, from an ideological civil war between the party’s left wing and the establishment that has handed Republicans plenty of political ammunition, to a brand image that’s nothing to brag about. Add to that the Democrats’ major disadvantage as the GOP floods the airwaves with attack ads.
Here are six forces that will likely determine whether Republicans can turn back a possible blue wave and hold power in Congress.
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1. Inflation
Six weeks until Election Day, and just as the voting begins, fuel prices keep rising, with the national average for gas nearly $4.50 per gallon and diesel topping $6.50 per gallon, according to AAA.
Public opinion polls point to the economy, including the cost of living, as the top issue for voters in this year’s midterms. That means that the issue that boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories in 2024 is a major liability in 2026. And the rising prices in recent weeks, fueled by renewed fighting in the war with Iran and Ukraine and attacks on Russia’s diesel industry, are doing the GOP no favors.
“Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under ‘TRUMP.’ So were almost all other prices,” the president argued Monday in a social media post, as he referred to former President Joe Biden.
While Trump and Republican leaders point fingers at Biden, polls indicate voters increasingly place the blame for ongoing economic and inflation pressures on the current administration.
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Democrats last week heavily criticized Trump and Republicans after the president argued that fuel costs were “a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” as he pointed to the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, the latest Fox News poll indicated that by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation.
But when asked about the overall economy, recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News had the GOP and Democrats all knotted up on which party would better handle the issue.
“My listeners are looking for prices to come down across the board,” New Hampshire-based center-right talk radio host Jack Heath told Fox News Digital.
“People elected President Trump to lower prices and improve their situation and people are looking for that improvement,” Heath, host of “Good Morning NH,” emphasized. “They’re looking for Trump to deliver on his promises.”
2. Trump’s influence
“I’m asking you to just pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time,” the president said last week during a campaign stop in battleground North Carolina.
It’s a line Trump repeatedly used earlier this month, at the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention.
Facing what polls indicate is an enthusiasm gap with Democrats, the president and Republican leaders are hoping to energize the MAGA base, which doesn’t always vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot. While the president’s approval rating in the Fox News poll stands at 39% among all voters, it remains at a sky-high 98% among self-described MAGA Republicans.
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But some longtime Trump allies are starting to break with the president as they face challenging re-elections.
GOP Rep. Maria Salazar won re-election two years ago by 20 points in South Florida’s 27th Congressional District. But with Trump’s negative poll numbers a potential anchor around her, Salazar last week released a TV ad criticizing the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement as having “gone too far,” and that “Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
Meanwhile, on Monday, two Trump allies who are in heated Senate battles — Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa and former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan, broke with the president as they demanded a swift end to the war with Iran.
Watch whether vulnerable Republicans create more distance from the president, or move toward Trump to juice Republican turnout.
3. Democrats’ Leftward Lurch
Republicans are aiming to turn what’s normally a referendum on the party in power into a choice election, as they spotlight major Democratic primary victories this year by far-left and socialist candidates over more mainstream Democrats.
“In state after state, the Democrat establishment has been overthrown and replaced by crazed lunatics and radicals. They call themselves Democrat socialists, but actually, they’re communists,” Trump charged at the midterm convention.
The messaging is pronounced in Michigan’s crucial Senate race, where GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers, as he referred to Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed, told FOX Business this week, “We don’t want this socialism nonsense in our state, and this guy is too extreme.”
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Polling gives a boost to the GOP’s “commonsense vs. crazy” messaging.
Fifty-five percent of registered voters surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll held an unfavorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), while only three in 10 saw the DSA in a positive light.
The Fox News poll was the latest national survey to show that while the DSA has gained traction among Democrats, the group and the broader socialist movement in America face significant national skepticism.
While the GOP full court press continues, in hopes of swaying undecided voters, Democrats are divided on its effectiveness.
Ty Strong, founder and president of the Moderate PAC, warned that the GOP playbook “absolutely could be effective.”
But Shannon Jackson, a key consultant and advisor to progressive leader Rep. Ro Khanna of California, argued that Republicans are “reaching for things. I think the DSA issue is something they’re trying to make something, but it is not.”
Meanwhile, this year’s primary surge by socialist and left-wing candidates isn’t helping Democrats boost their brand.
The party’s favorable ratings hit historic lows in the months following the 2024 election, and the latest Fox News poll indicates Democrats are still well underwater, with 55% of voters viewing the party in an unfavorable light.
4. GOP’s Money Bomb
Republicans enjoy a formidable cash advantage over the Democrats, and they’re using it in the final stretch leading up to Election Day.
While Democratic candidates in many key races have outraised their GOP opponents, the Republican National Committee remains far ahead of the rival Democratic National Committee when it comes to cash-on-hand.
And GOP-aligned outside groups, including the Trump-allied MAGA Inc., are opening the floodgates when it comes to ad spending, in order to try and level the playing field by overcoming the difficult political environment.
Republican groups have outspent their Democratic counterparts by more than $83 million to run spots in ten crucial Senate races since the start of September, according to figures from AdImpact, a nationally known firm that tracks ad spending.
While a financial advantage is not always decisive, strategists say it can often move the needle in a close contest. And in the 10 Senate races spotlighted by AdImpact, a onetime Democratic ad spending advantage over the summer turned into a major GOP deluge.
While much of the ad dollars dished out by Republicans are to protect vulnerable seats, the money may help as the GOP works to flip open-Democrat-held Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
5. Redistricting Wars
Thirteen months ago, Texas passed a new congressional redistricting map, giving Trump his first major victory in his push to give Republicans a big boost heading into the midterm elections by drawing more right-leaning districts.
Fast-forward to present day, and as they fight to hold their razor-thin House majority, Republicans were the big winners, with partisan redistricting netting them potentially 10 additional right-leaning congressional seats in time for the midterms.
But redrawing the maps and winning the seats are two different things, and some election analysts caution that the fierce headwinds facing the GOP could lead to Republicans falling far short of their original expectations heading into the redistricting wars.
6. House Field Narrows, Senate Map Broadens
There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, but the Cook Report suggests the battle for the chamber’s majority could come down to just 21 districts it rates as a toss-up.
The Fox News Power Rankings list 17 seats as true toss-ups.
Decades of gerrymander, including this cycle’s mid-decade redistricting, have made a major impact by narrowing the House battlefield, which may limit the number of pickups by the Democrats even if a blue wave forms.
While the number of competitive House seats stays historically small, the Senate map is widening, which is a positive sign for Democrats.
Democrats are feeling the heat in open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire, two must-holds for them as they try to win back a Senate currently controlled 53-47 by the GOP.
But Senate showdowns in red states, including Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, are now considered very competitive.
Need proof: Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Iowa and Kansas last week.
But recent polling is also giving Republicans hope they can flip the Democrat-controlled open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota.
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