SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) slipped in pre-market trading on Thursday as another block of restricted stock became eligible for sale, extending a supply overhang that has followed the company since its June market debut.
The stock was down about 0.6% before the bell after falling 4.11% on Wednesday to $148.36.
Up to 328.4 million Class A shares can become tradable on September 24 under SpaceX’s IPO lock-up schedule.
The release does not mean those shares will all be sold, but with more unlocks approaching and some investors already taking profits, the market is testing whether demand can absorb an expanding float.
The unlock is potential supply
Thursday’s release is part of a staggered post-IPO lock-up rather than a single expiry.
SpaceX’s June prospectus allows up to 328.4 million Class A shares, about 7% of the relevant locked pool, to be transferred from September 24.
Similar tranches are scheduled for October 9 and October 24, while up to 1.3 billion shares can become eligible after third-quarter results.
That distinction matters, as an unlock removes a contractual restriction on selling, but it does not force early investors or employees to dispose of their holdings.
RIT Capital Partners, a long-standing SpaceX investor, acknowledged the uncertainty in its August commentary.
“We continue to expect some near-term volatility in SpaceX as our staggered lock-up unwinds through the end of the year,” the investment trust said.
The stock’s recent history explains the concern. When up to 319 million shares became eligible on September 9, SpaceX fell roughly 3.9% that session.
Wednesday’s 4.11% decline, one day before the latest release, showed investors were again positioning cautiously.
Retail sellers are already active
The more important question is whether existing holders actually want to sell.
JPMorgan analysts noted that retail investors had sold about $570 million of SpaceX shares over three weeks, including nearly $250 million in the latest week, the largest weekly retail outflow he had recorded for the company.
That is notable because retail demand helped support SpaceX after its IPO. Additional locked shares becoming tradable now arrive as a previously important buyer group is reducing exposure.
Valuation adds to the sensitivity.
MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu recently raised her SpaceX price target to $142 from $131 while maintaining a Neutral stance.
Her earlier initiation note said there was “simply no credible financial model” supporting what was then a roughly $2 trillion valuation under the company’s most ambitious assumptions.
At Wednesday’s $148.36 close, the shares remained above their $135 IPO price, but far below the post-listing high of $225.64.
Starship could bring buyers back
There is also a strong counterargument, as Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak initiated SpaceX at Buy this month with a $220 target.
The analyst argued that the investment case ultimately depends on whether Starship can achieve economical reusability.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said, according to StreetInsider.
If SpaceX solves that engineering problem, Pivotal believes lower launch costs could expand Starlink and open other large markets.
For investors accessing high-growth themes through individual stocks or ETF platforms, the bigger question is whether that future earnings potential can justify absorbing a steadily expanding float.
In that scenario, additional supply could still find buyers willing to underwrite larger future earnings.
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