Five men arrested near a key U.S. bomber base in the U.K. on Sunday may have planned a “complex,” coordinated attack with potentially far-reaching security implications for American military installations globally, a former U.S. intelligence official warned.
As counterterrorism police investigated after officers detained the suspects near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, a former Pentagon official also said President Donald Trump would ultimately be the one to decide the consequences if indeed the “trail leads to Tehran.”
The men were initially held on suspicion of offenses under Britain’s Explosives Act before being arrested on terrorism charges in connection with the airfield, a key U.S. Air Force hub and the primary European base for American strategic bombers.
On Sunday, Trump said U.S. authorities had been monitoring the suspects prior to their capture.
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“We had them under investigation,” Trump told reporters in Chicago. “They were looking to do big damage to our fort.”
“It may have been Scotland Yard. I don’t know. We worked with a lot of them. We had them under view for a long time, and we got them,” Trump added.
According to Sky News, counterterrorism police were investigating whether Iran is linked to the suspected bomb plot.
Former Trump White House official Morgan Murphy also told Fox News Digital that British authorities are leading the investigation alongside U.S. law enforcement and intelligence.
“Every phone, bank record and rental receipt will be run through British and American intelligence, and if the trail leads to Tehran, it will be found,” Murphy clarified.
“But as American airmen and bombers seem to have been the target, Air Force investigators on the base, the FBI in London, and American intelligence will likely all work the case.”
“If conclusive evidence proves Iran is behind an attempted attack on U.S. forces, the American president will ultimately decide how Tehran pays,” Murphy added.
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Former Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) official Andrew Badger told Fox News Digital the number of suspects and vehicles involved raised the possibility of a sophisticated operation.
“We are going to see elevated security protocols across Europe, across the U.K., and across the entire world for any U.S. installation,” the former case officer said.
“This is a very significant threat, and again, seeing that we had five individuals involved and three different reported vans at the scene, this could have been a very complex, highly orchestrated operation,” Badger, who teaches on grey-zone warfare at the University of Oxford, added.
“This isn’t just some type of amateur lone wolf operation,” he said, noting Fairford’s strategic importance to the U.S. military. “Fairford is also where the U.S. houses its strategic bombers for Europe as well as the rest of the world.”
He said a potential attack posed broader risks beyond the airfield itself, which he said “could have had significant security implications. It could have damaged the nearby area.”
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“They could have tried to use a VBIED or a vehicle-borne explosive device where the first van could have gone off at the front gate, and then the other vans would have gone in and tried to go for the strategic bombers,” Badger said.
British authorities have not publicly identified who they believe was behind the suspected plot or announced a motive, but RAF Fairford had taken on greater strategic importance during the war with Iran.
The U.K. government previously authorized U.S. forces to use the Royal Air Force bases Fairford and Diego Garcia for limited defensive operations, including destroying Iranian missiles and launchers at source.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later warned that any base used to attack Iranian territory would be considered a legitimate target.
“Any base used to launch attacks on Iranian territory is a legitimate target for our forces,” the IRGC said, according to reports.
“Tehran warned London in July to keep American bombers off Fairford, and if this plot traces back to Iran, the answer must be more bombers, not fewer,” Murphy said.
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A local councilor told Reuters there had been a recent security alert at Fairford and surveillance had been stepped up.
“So there was a specific threat about six weeks ago from the Iranians on this base. At the time, there was increased surveillance around the area,” he told the outlet.
Badger, however, cautioned against assuming Iran was responsible while pointing to other potential threats.
“This could be Iran trying to gain strategic leverage in negotiations, but there are other actors as well,” the co-author of The Great Heist, added.
“There’s Russia, who has been launching a campaign of gray zone or hybrid warfare attacks across Europe, as well as Islamic extremists, which are still a significant threat here in the U.K.”
“Was this some type of retaliation by Iran to perhaps try to gain leverage or to try to inflict a cost on the U.S. for withdrawing from these negotiations? Again, we don’t know for sure, but it is a possibility,” Badger said.
Badger also pointed to RAF Welford, a major U.S. ammunition storage facility that primarily supports operations at RAF Fairford.
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“Welford is the second-largest weapons and ammunition depot in all of Europe,” Badger said, noting that the facility where the U.S. stores ammunition “could have been a target as well.”
“Other bases across Europe, including European and U.S. partners, have already been on a heightened state of alert,” Badger continued.
“But of course, after this attack, they’re going to be in an even more heightened state. You’re going to have more frequent security patrols.”
“There are reports that RAF Fairford was put onto what’s called the Delta alert, which is the highest state of security alert within the military base system,” Badger said.
“So this is basically that ‘an imminent terrorist attack is inbound,’” he concluded.
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