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Alphabet stock falls despite Gemini 4 Argon launch, Why are analysts bullish? 

by October 1, 2026
written by October 1, 2026

Alphabet stock GOOGL fell in trading on Thursday even after Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, its latest frontier artificial intelligence model, with analysts highlighting its performance across coding, cybersecurity and complex workflows.

JPMorgan maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating on Alphabet following the announcement.

In a note cited by TheFly, the bank said Google needs to “re-establish itself at the frontier and as an AI leader for both the industry and investors.”

KeyBanc also reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating and $435 price target, while Jefferies maintained a ‘Buy’ rating and a $445 target. Morningstar kept its $433 fair value estimate.

Gemini 4 Argon targets OpenAI and Anthropic

Google’s benchmark comparisons show Gemini 4 Argon competing with models from OpenAI and Anthropic, including GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Opus 5.5.

The model leads on several evaluations covering knowledge work, coding and long-context tasks, although competitors remain ahead on some benchmarks.

JPMorgan pointed to Argon’s performance across complex workflows, software engineering and cybersecurity as areas that could help Google strengthen its position in the AI market.

The launch comes as AI companies increasingly focus on applications beyond consumer chatbots.

OpenAI and Anthropic have expanded into software development, enterprise workflows and agentic tasks, increasing the expectations for frontier models.

Google is initially rolling out Argon to trusted cyber defenders through its Fairwind programme, with wider availability planned later.

The company said the phased approach is intended to gather feedback and strengthen safeguards before the model becomes available to developers, enterprises and consumers.

KeyBanc said the earlier-than-expected launch could support near-term sentiment, although the limited rollout makes it difficult to assess the model’s performance in real-world use.

Argon focuses on coding and cybersecurity

Google is positioning Gemini 4 Argon for long-horizon tasks, including software engineering, legal and financial knowledge work, and cybersecurity.

The company said the model achieved a 77.9% score on the DeepSWE v1.1 coding benchmark, which it described as a record result.

Jefferies noted that Argon still trails leading competitors on the more demanding FrontierSWE v2 benchmark.

The brokerage also said Argon ranked first for coding on LLM Arena’s Text Arena and eighth on Code Arena: Web Dev, 21 positions above Gemini 3.8 Flash.

Google said Argon can autonomously identify, verify, and address software vulnerabilities.

Jefferies said the model tied Grok 4.7 with a 68% score on CWE-bench v1, which tests vulnerability fixes.

For the initial cybersecurity rollout, Google said Argon will be provided to trusted defenders and internal teams without some of its standard safeguards.

Cybersecurity company Wiz is using the model through its Scan for Good programme, according to Google.

Google said it plans to strengthen safeguards before a broader release, including monitoring for potential misuse and intervening when necessary to prevent harmful actions.

Analysts focus on adoption, costs and AI spending

Gemini 4 Argon launches at an introductory price of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens.

Jefferies noted that Claude Fable 5.1 costs $10 and $50, respectively, while Claude Opus 5.5 costs $4 and $20. Google is also offering a 95% discount on cached input tokens.

KeyBanc identified several issues for investors to monitor, including how quickly Google can improve its AI assistants, how Gemini 4 and those assistants affect Search and Cloud, and the capital expenditure required to support the business.

Jefferies cautioned that real-world use will be needed to determine whether Argon’s benchmark results translate into practical performance.

Morningstar said its fair value estimate already incorporates a return to the AI frontier and strong Gemini adoption.

The firm said it continues to see Alphabet’s full-stack AI opportunity as potentially underappreciated.

Morningstar also noted that Alphabet’s cloud business could continue benefiting from compute deals with Anthropic, even if the company faces challenges at the model layer.

The post Alphabet stock falls despite Gemini 4 Argon launch, Why are analysts bullish?  appeared first on Invezz

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