SpaceX shares SPCX rose about 4% on Monday after Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating on the rocket and satellite company and described the stock as an unusually cheap way to gain exposure to the growing space and artificial intelligence economy.
The brokerage maintained a $300 price target, implying an 88.7% upside from Friday’s close.
The rally also helped Elon Musk regain his status as the world’s first trillionaire.
Forbes estimated Musk’s net worth at $1 trillion on Monday, up $30.6 billion from Friday, as shares of SpaceX and Tesla advanced.
Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX upside
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said SpaceX appeared expensive when assessed using conventional valuation measures but looked cheaper when adjusted for expected growth.
The company trades at around 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared with roughly 16 times for other mega-cap AI enablers.
However, its EV/EBIT/growth ratio stands at 0.3 times, around 40% below the peer median, according to Morgan Stanley.
Jonas said the valuation reflected only part of SpaceX’s broader business potential.
At Friday’s closing price of $159, Morgan Stanley estimated that the market was assigning about $127 per share to Starlink and the company’s rocket-launch business, leaving roughly $32 per share for its AI operations.
The brokerage’s $300 price target values external launch operations at $8 per share, Starlink connectivity at $118, consumer AI tools such as Grok at $8, and enterprise AI services at $165.
Jonas wrote that SpaceX was one of the cheaper ways to gain exposure to the growth potential of the space and intelligence economy when its valuation was adjusted for growth.
He also said the risks of upside surprises outweighed those on the downside at current levels.
Starship Flight 15 key catalyst
Morgan Stanley identified SpaceX’s upcoming Starship Flight 15 as a major potential catalyst.
The launch is expected in late October or early November and could include an attempt to catch the spacecraft’s upper section in mid-air.
A successful ship catch would represent further progress towards a reusable rocket system.
Morgan Stanley expects this could help reduce launch costs and accelerate the deployment of infrastructure.
Jonas described a successful ship catch as potentially the biggest positive catalyst for SpaceX since its initial public offering.
Other potential catalysts identified by the brokerage include additional AI compute contracts, new Grok releases and further progress on Starship reusability.
SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings later this month could also provide an early indication of adoption and monetisation of its AI services, including Cursor and Grok Bot, which were acquired and launched during the quarter.
Musk returns to trillionaire status
The gains in SpaceX and Tesla shares helped Musk’s estimated wealth return to the $1 trillion mark.
Forbes ranked Musk as the richest person in the world, with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos in second place with an estimated net worth of $371.5 billion.
Musk had previously crossed the trillion-dollar threshold in June after SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq, but subsequently fell below it after SpaceX and Tesla shares declined.
Musk’s net worth had moved closer to the milestone in recent days as both companies’ shares advanced.
Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries exceeded analyst expectations last week, while SpaceX shares also gained following the company’s recent Starship launch into orbit.
Despite the recent gains, Morgan Stanley highlighted several risks to its SpaceX outlook.
These include slower-than-expected AI growth, higher infrastructure costs and potential dilution.
The brokerage also noted that institutional ownership of SpaceX remains relatively low among its clients, partly because of the complexity of the company’s interconnected businesses across space, connectivity and AI.
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