Archer Aviation stock (NYSE: ACHR) has fallen roughly 38% in 2026, but Cathie Wood is buying the dip.
ARK Invest funds purchased about 2.57 million ACHR shares worth $12.1 million on Oct. 6, while ARK’s ARKW fund sold roughly $9.4 million of SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX).
At $4.65, Archer now sits near the bottom of its 52-week range even as TipRanks analysts see around 149% upside.
Is Archer Aviation stock a buy after its 38% drop?
Archer Aviation remains a high-risk stock despite Wall Street’s bullish targets. TipRanks’ six-analyst consensus of $11.60 implies roughly 149% upside from $4.65, while broader analyst data put the average target near $10.61.
The bull case depends on Archer expanding into defence, autonomy and airspace technology, while heavy cash burn and unfinished Midnight certification remain the biggest risks.
Archer has fallen from a 52-week high of $14.62 to $4.65, leaving it only modestly above its $4.30 low.
That collapse has come even as the company advances Midnight flight testing and prepares for the White House’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program.
ARK is adding after a repricing rather than chasing momentum.
The investment case has widened beyond passenger air taxis. On Archer’s earnings call, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said the company “no longer is an eVTOL company,” describing it instead as an aerospace, defence and advanced-air-mobility platform.
Archer plans to acquire Boeing’s Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid businesses, adding autonomy, military drones and airspace software. Insitu alone brings more than $200 million in annual revenue.
Wood is therefore buying a company whose share price has collapsed just as its addressable market is broadening.
ACHR stock forecast: Why analysts still see more than 149% upside
TipRanks’ six-analyst consensus target stands at $11.60, implying roughly 149% upside from Tuesday’s close.
A broader nine-analyst set puts the average target closer to $10.61. But the range is unusually wide, as the lowest target is about $4.50, implying slight downside from current levels, while the highest target of $18 suggests potential upside of almost 290%.
That spread tells investors something the headline average cannot: Wall Street broadly agrees Archer has significant long-term potential, but analysts disagree sharply over what that potential is worth today.
The bullish argument increasingly depends on Archer becoming a broader aerospace and defence platform, not simply getting Midnight certified.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller kept a Buy rating and $12 target after Archer announced the Boeing transaction. TipRanks reported that Moeller sees the company “evolving into a more defence tech-focused business.”
Canaccord lifted its 2027 revenue estimate to about $325.5 million from $124.5 million, reflecting expected contributions from defence and autonomous-aviation assets alongside Midnight.
Archer is also developing Halo and Thunder autonomous aircraft and ZEE, an aviation-focused AI foundation model. Boeing is set to become a strategic shareholder and partner.
Archer’s biggest risk is not valuation but execution
Archer generated $5 million of second-quarter revenue while adjusted EBITDA showed a $177.1 million loss. Operating expenses approached $280 million, and cash used in operations reached $156.4 million.
Canaccord estimated quarterly free-cash use at roughly $194 million and expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $717 million for 2026.
H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal nevertheless reiterated a Buy rating and $18 target after the results. From $4.65, that implies almost 290% upside.
But the $4.50 low target provides an important counterweight. It suggests at least one Wall Street view sees little reason for the stock to trade materially above current levels until Archer proves more of its commercial story.
Certification remains another central risk. Canaccord noted that Archer had not provided detailed timing for Phase 4 testing and analysis required for Midnight’s airworthiness certification.
That helps explain the gulf between bullish targets and weak price action. Investors are being asked to value businesses that could become large before the underlying programmes prove they can scale commercially.
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