Nvidia enters a pivotal week for the AI trade, with investors weighing whether the world’s most valuable company deserves another run at a $6 trillion valuation.
The shares closed Friday at $229.28, valuing Nvidia at $5.54 trillion, after its market capitalisation approached $5.78 trillion earlier in the week. A move towards $249 would take it near $6 trillion.
Three events this week could shape Nvidia’s next move. US inflation data arrives on Wednesday, alongside ASML’s results, followed by TSMC’s earnings on Thursday.
CPI will test how much investors will pay for Nvidia’s growth
September CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect headline inflation of about 3.7%, while the 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday around 5.24%, near a 24-year high.
The inflation numbers matter for NVDA stock as higher yields reduce the present value investors assign to future profits and raise financing costs across the data-centre build-out supporting demand for Nvidia’s chips.
Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos said investors he had met increasingly saw something going wrong in the AI ecosystem as their biggest systemic concern. The Wall Street Journal quoted him saying AI concentration risk remains “under-priced by the market.”
A hotter CPI print would therefore hit Nvidia from two directions: its valuation multiple could compress, while the cost of funding the AI infrastructure boom would rise.
ASML will show whether chipmakers are still building for AI
ASML reports before European markets open on Wednesday. The Dutch equipment group is crucial because its lithography machines are required to manufacture advanced semiconductors.
Its latest guidance called for third-quarter sales of €11 billion to €12 billion. ASML has also said 2026 EUV system revenue should grow more than 45%, driven by advanced logic and DRAM demand.
The key number may be bookings. Strong orders would suggest foundries and memory producers still believe AI demand justifies expensive capacity additions years into the future.
That would support Nvidia’s longer-term growth assumptions.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $300 Nvidia target last week after Taiwan’s September computing-equipment exports rose. Price Target quoted Arcuri describing the data as “consistent with healthy underlying AI-driven demand.”
TSMC is the closest thing Nvidia gets to an earnings preview
TSMC reports Thursday and is expected to deliver a sixth consecutive quarter of record profit.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect net income to jump about 65% to T$746.3 billion after third-quarter revenue rose 50% to a record T$1.49 trillion.
For Nvidia investors, TSMC matters more than almost any outside earnings report. It manufactures Nvidia’s leading processors and sits inside the advanced-packaging supply chain that has constrained AI-chip output.
The key questions are forward-looking: fourth-quarter guidance, 2027 AI demand, advanced-node utilisation and CoWoS capacity.
Stifel analyst Sahej Singh said TSMC’s third-quarter revenue finished about 2% above the top of guidance and roughly 2.5% ahead of consensus. Price Target reported that Singh expects Thursday’s call to produce guidance strong enough to lift TSMC’s full-year growth outlook.
That would strengthen the case that Nvidia’s demand runway remains intact.
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