Novo Nordisk shares NVO rose on Tuesday after the Danish drugmaker reported that its experimental weight-loss drug CagriSema helped women with obesity or overweight lose an average of 25% of their body weight in a late-stage clinical study.
The stock gained more than 2% as investors assessed the findings for a potential successor to Wegovy, Novo’s blockbuster obesity treatment.
CagriSema could help the company regain ground lost to US rival Eli Lilly in the rapidly expanding weight-loss drug market as Wegovy faces patent expiries after 2030.
Last month, the company said it aims to launch more than five drugs with “multi-blockbuster” potential by 2030 and generate more than 150 billion Danish kroner ($23 billion) in pipeline sales by 2035.
CagriSema shows promising results in women
Novo said a 2.4 milligram dose of CagriSema was associated with average weight loss of 25% after 68 weeks among 2,309 women enrolled in the REDEFINE 1 study, compared with 3% among women receiving a placebo.
However, results from the full trial involving more than 3,400 adults showed average weight loss of 22.7%, below Novo’s target of 25%.
The findings for women were presented at the annual meeting of The Menopause Society in San Diego.
CagriSema is a once-weekly injection combining cagrilintide, which mimics the pancreatic hormone amylin, and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy.
A separate post-hoc analysis assessed 1,902 women with overweight or obesity who received CagriSema or a placebo, examining outcomes across different stages of menopause.
After 68 weeks, average weight loss was 26.7% among premenopausal women, 24.8% among perimenopausal women and 23.1% among postmenopausal women.
“Many women with obesity or overweight experience weight gain as they move through menopause, and it is important to explore investigational products such as CagriSema across the reproductive lifespan,” said Michelle Skinner Moore, vice president of medical affairs at Novo.
Novo cautioned that post-hoc analyses are hypothesis-generating and require further study.
A US Food and Drug Administration decision on CagriSema’s approval for weight management is expected in the fourth quarter of this year.
Competition and patent concerns weigh on Novo
Despite Tuesday’s gains, Novo Nordisk shares have fallen more than 25% this year as Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have gained market share in the GLP-1 drug market.
The shift has increased pressure on Novo as it tries to defend its position in a global obesity drug market that some analysts expect to exceed $100 billion in the 2030s.
Last week, BMO Capital lowered its price target on Novo shares to $40 from $47, while maintaining a Market Perform rating.
The firm cited difficult year-on-year comparisons and declining US market share as factors likely to weigh on Ozempic revenue.
Novo benefited from a DKK 2 billion gross-to-net adjustment in the third quarter of 2025, a large portion of which was tied to Ozempic.
This lifted reported quarterly revenue from the drug to DKK 30.7 billion.
BMO said the benefit could exaggerate the year-on-year decline in US Ozempic revenue in the third quarter of 2026.
Last month, Morgan Stanley downgraded Novo to Underweight from Equal-weight, citing subdued medium-term growth prospects and concerns over the approaching patent expiry for semaglutide, the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy.
With Wegovy facing patent expiries after 2030, CagriSema represents an important part of Novo’s efforts to sustain growth and compete with Eli Lilly.
However, the latest findings among women will need to be considered alongside the full-trial results and the regulatory review as investors assess the drug’s commercial potential.
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