U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued a stark warning Saturday at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore: China’s military is ‘rehearsing for the real deal,’ and a full-scale invasion of Taiwan ‘could be imminent.’
‘We are not going to sugarcoat it – the threat China poses is real,’ he added.
Beijing swiftly rejected the allegation. Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng, head of the Chinese delegation and vice president of China’s National Defense University, called the remarks ‘groundless accusations,’ stating that ‘some of the claims are completely fabricated, some distort facts and some are cases of a thief crying ‘stop thief.’’ Despite such denials, a growing body of evidence suggests China may indeed be preparing for a military move against Taiwan.
Numerous indicators draw this conclusion. Here are nine:
1. China has intensified its joint sea and air exercises surrounding Taiwan, including rehearsals simulating blockades, encirclements, and amphibious assaults. These drills closely mirror operational strategies that would likely be employed in an actual invasion and are widely interpreted by analysts as concrete signals of Beijing’s willingness to use force.
2. The Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) has positioned H-6 bombers, capable of delivering nuclear payloads, on outposts such as Woody Island in the South China Sea. These platforms significantly extend China’s strike capability and serve as strategic messaging to both Taipei and Washington.
3. China continues to conduct gray-zone operations aka non-kinetic forms of coercion, including cyberattacks on Taiwan’s infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and illegal incursions by maritime militia vessels. Though these actions fall below the threshold of open warfare, they are designed to wear down Taiwan’s defenses and destabilize the region.
4. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to be capable of launching an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. While not a confirmed deadline for action, it has catalyzed PLA modernization, emphasizing joint force integration and amphibious readiness.
5. China’s strategic expansion in Latin America – especially through Belt and Road investments and attempts to influence key nodes such as the Panama Canal reflect broader ambitions to project global power and encircle U.S. interests. These moves indirectly support Taiwan-related ambitions by distracting or overextending U.S. response capabilities.
6. Recent PLA exercises have incorporated civilian ferries capable of transporting tanks and personnel—suggesting preparations for amphibious operations on Taiwan’s shores. The dual-use nature of these assets allows China to mask military buildup under the guise of civilian activity.
7. Beijing has intensified its political narrative around ‘reunification,’ including state media coverage, educational reforms, and speeches by top Chinese officials. These ideological signals often precede military action in authoritarian regimes.
8, China has rapidly expanded its coastal infrastructure, including new docks, airstrips, and logistics hubs in Fujian Province—directly across the Taiwan Strait. Satellite imagery suggests these assets are optimized for a cross-strait operation.
9. Chinese fighter jets and warships have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) at unprecedented levels. In early 2025 alone, PLA aircraft breached Taiwan’s ADIZ over 1,200 times, prompting elevated readiness levels in Taipei.
The question of whether China will invade Taiwan is no longer hypothetical but a matter of timing and risk calculus. While Beijing continues to deny aggressive intent, the evidence suggests a sustained and deliberate military buildup with the intent to compel reunification—if not peacefully, then by force.
Hegseth’s warning reflects not alarmism, but a sober assessment of escalating realities. These indicators—military drills, strategic deployments, political rhetoric, and infrastructure mobilization—align with historical precedents for pre-invasion posturing.
The international community must take this threat seriously. Strengthening deterrence, improving intelligence sharing, and reinforcing Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities are critical to avoiding a regional catastrophe. For the United States and its allies, readiness is no longer optional—it is a strategic imperative.
