The battle for control of Congress is entering its final sprint, with Republicans and Democrats just over a month away from learning who will wield power for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency.
House Democrats lead House Republicans in the most recent Fox News Power Rankings, with the left projected to win 215 seats in the lower chamber compared to 201 for the GOP. But 19 seats are still ranked as toss-ups, meaning the final majority is still anyone’s to claim.
One issue that’s given Republicans a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak cycle is the far-left insurgency that’s gripped the Democratic Party. Several key victories by socialist candidates could threaten to push the party further left than most Americans are, a warning that GOP candidates across the country have shared.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: DEMOCRATS LEAD IN THE HOUSE, BUT REDISTRICTING KEEPS THE GOP IN THE GAME
Below is a list of 10 House districts currently held by Democrats where Republicans could see key victories that help them retain control.
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., is running for re-election in a congressional district that’s been redrawn to significantly favor Republicans.
SUPREME COURT ALLOWS ALABAMA GOP-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL MAP FOR MIDTERMS
A 2023 Supreme Court decision ordered Alabama to create a second Black opportunity district ahead of the 2024 election, meaning Black voters there would have meaningful sway in the general election. The resulting boundaries helped Figures win his seat, which was previously held by Rep. Barry Moore, R-Ala., who ran in a neighboring district that cycle.
But the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais earlier this year significantly curbed the Voting Rights Act’s enforcement of racial considerations in congressional maps, paving the way for southern states to alter district boundaries that were drawn to give minorities more representation.
BLOCKBUSTER SUPREME COURT VOTING RIGHTS RULING IGNITES REDISTRICTING WAR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES
That hit Figures particularly hard. The new district would have voted for President Donald Trump by roughly 14% in 2024, according to 270ToWin. Both Fox News Power Rankings and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) rate it as “likely Republican.”
Florida’s 9th Congressional District
Florida lawmakers also altered their state’s map ahead of November, aimed at giving Republicans a slight edge in the already-red state.
Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., who is running for a sixth term representing his district, was one of the Democrats whose seat was hit the hardest.
His newly redrawn district voted for Trump by nearly 18%, 270ToWin’s analysis states.
REDISTRICTING GIVES REPUBLICANS AN EDGE, BUT AFFORDABILITY WILL DECIDE THE MIDTERMS
Fox News Power Rankings rates it as “lean Republican” while CPR ranks the seat as a “likely” Republican pickup.
Florida’s 14th Congressional District
The Tampa-area House seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., was also among the blue seats redrawn by the Sunshine State’s government to make it more competitive for Republicans.
The longtime moderate Democrat has served in Congress since 2007 and represented her current district since 2013.
She’s facing off against a former Florida state lawmaker, Republican Mike Beltran, who also has name recognition in the area.
Under its new lines, which remove more Democrat-leaning places around the city of St. Petersburg in favor of more rural and suburban areas in the south and east, Trump would have won the district by 10.5% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
Both Fox News Power Rankings and CPR rate it a “toss-up,” meaning it’s anyone’s game.
Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Republicans redrew Florida’s 22nd Congressional District in a way that could have pitted incumbent Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., against each other in a likely expensive and bruising primary.
But both opted to run in other districts, leaving the seat currently occupied by retiring Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., as a potential opportunity for both parties.
Under Florida’s new map, 270ToWin projects Trump would have won the district by roughly 10% in 2024.
Democrat Pia Dandiya, a political newcomer, is running against Republican businessman and Marine Casey Askar.
Both Fox News and CPR rank the district a “toss-up.”
Florida’s 25th Congressional District
Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., is running in Florida’s 25th Congressional District after the GOP’s aforementioned redistricting play, a seat that on paper was amended to give Republicans a slight edge.
Redistricting shifted the seat from one that ex-Vice President Kamala Harris won by single digits to one that Trump would have won by nearly 10 points.
Moskowitz has long touted his bipartisan work in Congress and as Florida’s emergency management director under Gov. Ron DeSantis, giving Democrats some confidence that he could overcome the political shift in Republicans’ favor.
Fox News’ latest projections have the seat leaning Democrat, while CPR ranks it a “toss-up.”
Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District
Rep. Cleo Fields, D-La., is retiring at the end of this year, making his seat another open race.
But the same 2023 and 2026 Supreme Court decisions that affected Figures in Alabama are at play in the Bayou State this year.
After the most recent decision rolling back the Voting Rights Act, Republicans were able to redraw the 6th district in a way that diluted the Black population, who primarily voted Democrat in 2024, to factor in more red-leaning areas.
Because of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry signed legislation delaying the state’s House primary races to Nov. 3 and the general election to Dec. 12.
Both Fox News’ and CPR’s rankings project the seat to fall into Republican hands.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
The retirement of moderate Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, has opened up a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup in the American Northeast.
Golden, who is known for frequently breaking from his own party on key issues like immigration and tariffs, represents a district that Trump won by 9% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
Republicans have a particularly strong candidate in that open race, former Gov. Paul LePage.
Fox News rates the district a “toss-up,” while CPR projects it as a likely Republican victory.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
Perennial battleground Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., is facing one of his toughest re-election battles yet thanks to North Carolina also joining the nationwide redistricting fight ahead of November.
Like Golden, Davis also won a district that went to Trump over Harris in 2024.
But under the state’s new maps, Trump’s margin of victory in that state widened considerably — and with it, Republicans’ chances of winning.
Davis is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout, who he defeated in 2024 by less than 2%.
Fox News rates the district a “toss-up,” while CPR’s rankings say it leans slightly for Republicans.
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
Lone Star State Republicans kicked off the nationwide redistricting fight ahead of the 2026 midterms with a map that was redrawn to win the GOP up to five more seats in November.
Among those is a district currently represented by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar, D-Texas.
But Casar is now running in the nearby 37th Congressional District, leaving the 35th a wide-open race that both parties see opportunity in.
Under the new boundaries, Trump would have won the district by roughly 10%, according to 270ToWin.
A GOP victory there, however, will depend heavily on its considerable Hispanic population shifting to the right again this year.
Both Fox News and CPR project the district leaning slightly in favor of Republicans.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, is also running a tougher race this year thanks to her state’s new congressional map.
Kaptur’s battleground district was shifted slightly to include more Republican-leaning areas, making an already difficult re-election bid even more of an uphill battle.
Trump would have won the district by 10.5% under its new lines, according to 270ToWin.
But Kaptur has survived several attempts at redistricting by Republicans since her first victory in 1982. She is the longest-serving woman in congressional history and the longest currently-serving House member from Ohio.
Both Fox News and CPR rated the district a “toss-up” in November.
Fox News’ Remy Numa contributed to this report.
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