Oppenheimer has become the first global brokerage to initiate coverage of SpaceX stock ahead of the company’s Nasdaq debut on Friday, issuing an Outperform rating and a $190 price target.
Its call implied about a 41% upside that would push SPCX market cap to a whopping $2.5 trillion within the next 12 to 18 months – a bold opening salvo as the most anticipated IPO in market history prepares to begin trading on June 12.
A simple bull case for SpaceX stock
At the heart of Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan’s bullish case is a simple but sweeping claim: SpaceX is unique.
In his research note, he described it as the only vertically integrated AI company in the world with the simultaneous combination of capital, proprietary data, large language models, specialised hardware, manufacturing scale, and engineering talent.
According to him, SpaceX intends to merge communications and cloud computing with artificial intelligence through space-based infrastructure – an ambition no rival can replicate end-to-end.
That integration, the firm believes, positions SPCX shares to address a total addressable market of an exciting $10 trillion within the next 10 years, making the firm’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation look modest in context.
What’s the engine behind SPCX shares
The financial backbone underpinning Oppenheimer’s conviction is Starlink which generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, representing a remarkable 50% increase on a year-over-year basis.
And this was achieved at a staggering 63% EBITDA margin (adjusted) – with more than 12 million subscribers across 164 countries as of March.
Layered on top is a rapidly monetising AI infrastructure business.
SpaceX’s Colossus data centres, built at a cost of $12.7 billion in AI capex in 2025 alone, are now contracted to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month and to Google at $920 million per month through 2029.
Together, these deals represent about $26 billion in annualised compute revenue and fundamentally transform the company’s earnings picture, reinforcing that SpaceX shares could rip higher through the remainder of 2026.
Supply squeeze and index inclusion as near-term catalysts
Beyond the longer-term thesis, Oppenheimer highlights two “structural tailwinds” that could drive SPCX stock higher in the immediate aftermath of the IPO.
The float at launch represents just 5% of total shares outstanding, creating a kind of demand-supply imbalance that Horan explicitly flagged in his note – driven by retail appetite and the likelihood of accelerated inclusion in major indices.
SpaceX’s initial public offering has already drawn more than $70 billion in retail orders – further underscoring the scale of that demand.
All in all, with underwriters including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley observing what is commonly known as a post-listing quiet period, Oppenheimer currently stands among the very few names prepared to tell investors the stock is worth buying at $135.
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