CoreWeave (CRWV) shares surged about 10% on Tuesday as investors reacted to fresh analyst commentary suggesting the cloud-computing company could deliver a significant backlog beat in the second quarter.
The rally came after Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted information contained in a recent bond-offering memorandum that analysts believe points to stronger-than-expected contract growth.
The stock’s gains were also supported by increasing options activity and continued optimism surrounding the company’s position in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence infrastructure market.
Bond filing points to stronger backlog growth
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch said investors may be overlooking key details contained in CoreWeave’s latest bond-offering memorandum.
According to the analyst, “equity investors have largely ignored” several internal metrics disclosed in the filing that provide insight into the pace of contract signings during the second quarter.
Among the figures highlighted were backlog growth and run-rate EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
CoreWeave disclosed run-rate EBITDA of $18.758 billion in the filing, up from $16.098 billion reported in a previous offering memorandum released in April.
Using those figures, Knoblauch estimates CoreWeave’s backlog could have reached approximately $125 billion by early June.
He noted that the memorandum only reflects about 80% of the current quarter.
If the company continues adding contracts at a similar pace, the analyst believes backlog could exceed $131 billion by June 30.
That would represent a substantial increase from the company’s reported first-quarter backlog of $99.4 billion and would surpass Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $104.4 billion.
“As such, we get the sense that CoreWeave could be gearing up for a sizable beat when it comes to backlog,” Knoblauch wrote.
Analysts remain bullish on long-term growth
The filing also provided additional information regarding the company’s balance sheet and financing requirements.
According to CoreWeave’s estimates, gross debt could reach $68.5 billion, while net debt may total $58.3 billion as the company continues investing to meet customer demand and fulfill backlog commitments.
Despite the significant debt levels, Knoblauch argued that investors are underestimating the value of both CoreWeave and the broader market for specialized AI cloud providers.
He said the market is “woefully undervaluing” neocloud companies and maintained an Overweight rating on CoreWeave with a $167 price target.
Other analysts have also become increasingly positive on the stock.
Last week, Macquarie upgraded CoreWeave to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $125 from $90.
The firm cited the company’s partnerships with major technology companies, including Meta Platforms and OpenAI, and argued that CoreWeave is positioned to “increasingly become a structural player into the next decade.”
Options activity and Nasdaq inclusion add momentum
Investor enthusiasm has also been evident in the options market.
Traders have been purchasing call options ahead of the June 26 expiration date, reflecting expectations for additional upside following the latest analyst commentary.
Supporters of the stock point to CoreWeave’s rapid revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and sizable multiyear backlog as indicators of long-term potential.
However, risks remain.
CoreWeave continues to fund much of its expansion through debt and significant cash spending.
While analysts see potential for strong profitability over time, investors remain focused on whether management can convert growing EBITDA into sustainable free cash flow and reduce dependence on external financing.
The stock may receive another boost later this month when it joins the Nasdaq 100 Index.
CoreWeave is scheduled to be added alongside Nebius Group, Rocket Lab, Astera Labs, and Teradyne as part of the index’s quarterly rebalance, which takes effect before the market opens on June 22.
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