SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq a few hours from now, with investors and prediction-market traders increasingly betting that Elon Musk’s rocket company could quickly surpass a $2 trillion valuation after its market debut.
The company priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, giving it an initial market capitalization of roughly $1.77 trillion and making it one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world from day one.
Yet activity across prediction markets and derivatives platforms suggests many investors expect an even stronger start.
Most traders feel SpaceX will close above $1.8T valuation
Traders on prediction market platform Polymarket are overwhelmingly optimistic about SpaceX’s first trading session.
According to market data, traders assign an 84% probability that SPCX will close its debut day with a valuation above $1.8 trillion.
The odds of the company exceeding a $2 trillion market capitalization stand at 69%.
Based on the IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, reaching the $2 trillion mark would imply a gain of roughly 13% from the offering price.
The bullish sentiment reflects expectations that investor demand will remain strong after the stock begins trading, particularly among retail investors who were unable to access IPO allocations.
A sizeable first-day rally is often viewed as evidence of strong market demand.
Many corporate executives and investment bankers generally regard a first-day gain of 20% or more as a successful public debut, although larger jumps can also suggest that shares may have been conservatively priced during the offering process.
Hyperliquid and derivatives markets signal upside
Additional clues about investor expectations are emerging from alternative trading venues.
SpaceX-linked pre-IPO perpetual futures on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid have indicated a significantly higher valuation than the IPO price.
Based on recent trading activity, the contracts imply an opening share price of around $175, approximately 30% above the $135 offering price.
More than $200 million worth of SpaceX-linked contracts changed hands over the past 24 hours, according to platform data.
During that period, prices climbed from just above $160 to nearly $185 before retreating modestly.
The contracts do not represent ownership of actual SpaceX shares.
Instead, they allow traders to speculate on the company’s market value before public trading begins.
Once SpaceX starts trading on the Nasdaq, the contracts will transition into crypto-based instruments designed to track the stock’s performance.
Market participants have increasingly watched Hyperliquid as a source of price discovery ahead of major IPOs.
Although the platform remains officially unavailable to US users due to regulatory restrictions, it has attracted growing attention from Wall Street because of its round-the-clock trading activity.
Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG are also signaling strong demand.
According to IG pricing, SpaceX’s market capitalization could rise to approximately $2.4 trillion shortly after trading begins.
That valuation would imply a share price near $180, 33% higher than the offer price.
SpaceX eyes entry into elite market-value club
Even a modest first-day gain could place SpaceX among an exclusive group of American companies valued at more than $2 trillion.
Currently, only five US companies have crossed that threshold: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.
A valuation above $2 trillion would also place SpaceX ahead of Broadcom, which currently carries a market value of about $1.85 trillion.
Even at its IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX enters public markets larger than Musk’s electric vehicle maker Tesla, whose market capitalization stood at roughly $1.72 trillion late Thursday.
While traders appear confident that the stock will enjoy a strong debut, Friday’s opening session will provide the first real test of whether investor enthusiasm can justify one of the largest and most closely watched IPOs in market history.
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