Samsung stock gave up an early post-Federal Reserve gain on Thursday, highlighting a growing divide between nervous global investors and analysts who still expect the memory boom to drive substantially higher earnings.
That tension is now becoming harder to ignore, as the shares opened at 257,000 won and touched 259,000 won before slipping back towards Wednesday’s 253,500 won close.
Samsung had risen 2.01% in the previous session.
The reversal came after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first increase since July 2023.
Yet Goldman Sachs still has a Buy rating and a 490,000 won target, implying roughly 93% upside from Wednesday’s close.
Samsung’s Fed bounce fades as yields stay high
The Fed’s move itself was not the biggest surprise. Markets had already largely priced in a quarter-point increase, shifting attention towards how long tighter conditions might persist.
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on September 16, according to Federal Reserve data, keeping the discount rate applied to future technology earnings unusually high.
Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities said investors should “place greater weight on the trajectory of 10-year yields and international oil prices” than on another isolated 25-basis-point increase, according to SBS.
That helps explain Samsung’s early reversal.
Higher long-term yields can pressure semiconductor valuations even when company fundamentals remain healthy.
They also tighten global liquidity at a time when foreign investors have already been cutting Korean exposure.
Foreign investors sold Samsung shares throughout much of September, including more than two million shares on Wednesday despite the stock’s 2% advance.
Goldman’s 490,000 won target rests on memory pricing
Against that macro pressure, Goldman Sachs remains strikingly bullish.
The bank maintained Buy ratings on Samsung and SK Hynix after discussions with North American investors, where sentiment towards the memory cycle remained broadly positive.
Goldman kept its Samsung target at 490,000 won. From Wednesday’s 253,500 won close, that implies about 93% upside.
More important is the earnings assumption behind the target.
Goldman expects third-quarter DRAM and NAND average selling prices to rise about 20% sequentially. It also forecasts HBM average selling prices to increase roughly 100% next year as AI infrastructure demand keeps supply tight.
That creates the central tension for investors.
The Fed is making investors demand a higher return from risk assets just as Goldman believes Samsung’s underlying earnings power is accelerating.
If memory pricing stays strong, the current valuation pressure could prove temporary. If pricing momentum fades, however, higher rates would make that disappointment harder for the stock to absorb.
BNK sees the memory cycle very differently
Not everyone accepts Goldman’s view, as BNK Investment & Securities has downgraded Samsung to Hold and cut its target price to 270,000 won from 300,000 won.
Analyst Lee Min-hee warned that “memory prices are unlikely to rise further and demand elasticity is weakening,” according to Seoul Economic Daily.
BNK also expects aggressive capacity expansion to make the supply-demand balance less favourable.
That is a very different earnings framework.
Goldman sees continued scarcity, rising prices and durable profitability. BNK sees pricing nearing a ceiling as supply expands and customers become more sensitive to higher memory costs.
The gap between their targets, 490,000 won versus 270,000 won, matters far more than Thursday morning’s modest intraday reversal.
Samsung’s next major test will therefore come from third-quarter earnings, DRAM and NAND pricing and evidence on 2027 demand.
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