SpaceX (SPCX) stock rose in early trading Monday as its weighting in the Nasdaq-100 more than doubled in the index’s quarterly rebalance.
Shares were up around 2% near $156, extending the stock’s recovery as the company moves into a period of heavier index exposure and several potential catalysts.
SpaceX will account for 2.82% of the Nasdaq-100 when the quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday.
The increase closes part of an unusual gap between SpaceX’s market value and its influence on the index.
The company is now the seventh-largest Nasdaq-100 constituent by market capitalization, with a value above $2 trillion, but its previous weighting ranked outside the index’s top 20.
Passive funds add to SpaceX exposure
SpaceX’s relatively low weighting dates back to its addition to the Nasdaq-100 in July.
At the time, much of the company’s stock remained subject to lockups and was unavailable for public trading.
That limited its effective weighting, despite Nasdaq changing its rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to enter the index sooner and removing a requirement that at least 10% of shares be publicly tradable.
The higher weighting means passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 must adjust their holdings to reflect SpaceX’s larger share of the benchmark.
More than 200 investment products track the Nasdaq-100, with more than $800 billion in assets under management globally.
The increased index weighting could therefore provide an additional source of demand for SpaceX shares as passive portfolios are rebalanced.
But the stock still faces a potentially significant increase in available supply.
Lockups remain a major overhang
Unlike a conventional IPO with a single 180-day lockup expiration, SpaceX structured its prospectus around roughly a dozen dates on which insiders and other shareholders can become eligible to sell.
That staggered schedule limits the amount of stock becoming available at any one time but has not removed the potential selling pressure.
Shares fell around 3% during the latest major release after as many as 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading.
At recent prices, those shares were worth roughly $49 billion.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day.
More releases are scheduled through the remainder of 2026.
Around 320 million shares are expected to become eligible on September 24, followed by another roughly 320 million shares on October 9 and October 24.
The largest potential release is expected two full trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter results, which are expected in late October or early November.
Up to 1.3 billion shares, or roughly 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable at that point.
December 8 marks the 180-day expiration, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
That creates a continuing supply overhang even as the stock has recovered from its August low, giving early investors more opportunities to realize gains.
Starship adds another near-term catalyst
Investors are also looking ahead to SpaceX’s next major Starship test.
SpaceX said last week that it is targeting Starship Flight 14 for as early as September 28, pending regulatory approval.
The company had previously targeted September 22 for the launch from its Starbase facility in Texas.
The mission has a 75-minute launch window beginning at 8:15 a.m. ET, according to SpaceX’s mission briefing page.
Flight 14 is expected to be the first revenue-generating Starship mission.
CFO Bret Johnsen described it as such at a recent Goldman Sachs conference.
The spacecraft is expected to carry and deploy 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites, supporting an upgrade of SpaceX’s satellite constellation.
The mission is important to the company’s longer-term investment case because much of SpaceX’s growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak has tied his $220 price target to that assumption.
His valuation case assumes Starship vehicles can complete 20 to 50 flights, require relatively low refurbishment costs and achieve rapid turnaround times.
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