US stock futures struggled for direction on Monday as investors returned from the Juneteenth break to a market caught between easing oil risks and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Progress in US-Iran talks helped pull crude prices lower, reducing fears of a fresh inflation shock from the Middle East.
But the relief was not enough to spark a clear risk-on move, with traders still watching Treasury yields, this week’s inflation data and the next test for the AI-led chip rally.
The Nasdaq’s recent strength remains intact, but the bar for fresh upside is now getting higher across Wall Street today.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. US futures pause after last week’s gains
US stock futures pointed lower before the open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures off 0.6%. Dow futures fell 187 points, or 0.4%, as investors trimmed risk.
The Nasdaq gained 2.4% last week as AI-linked stocks continued to drive market sentiment.
2. US-Iran talks ease pressure on oil
Oil prices fell as much as 2% after Washington and Tehran agreed to a roadmap aimed at reaching a final deal within 60 days.
The progress helped cool fears of a deeper supply shock from the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
For equities, lower crude reduces the risk of another inflation squeeze.
3. Chip stocks stay in focus
Memory chipmakers were among the stronger premarket movers. Micron Technology and Sandisk rose about 3.5% each, while Intel gained more than 4%.
Micron’s results on Wednesday will be closely watched as a key test of the AI-driven semiconductor trade, which has been one of the main engines behind Wall Street’s recent advance.
4. PCE inflation could test Fed expectations
Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures report is the main macro event of the week. The data is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and could shape expectations for the next policy move.
Traders are already pricing in a quarter-point rate increase by September after last week’s hawkish tone from Chair Kevin Warsh.
5. Apogee jumps while SpaceX extends losses
Apogee Therapeutics surged after reports that AbbVie was nearing a deal to buy the inflammatory disease drug developer for about $10.9 billion.
SpaceX shares moved lower, extending recent losses after a strong market debut.
The contrasting moves show how stock-specific catalysts remain important even as macro risks dominate broader trading.
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