Apple could be one day away from unveiling a new iPhone capable of generating $14 billion in quarterly revenue, but Wall Street thinks the event could become a sell-the-news moment.
Morgan Stanley expects Apple’s first foldable iPhone to ship about 6.5 million units in the December quarter, generating roughly $14 billion, or 16% of iPhone revenue.
But the launch may bring some of Apple’s steepest price increases in years.
Morgan Stanley sees a $14 billion product
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring called the foldable “the biggest iPhone form-factor change since iPhone X.”
The bank expects Apple to build 7 million to 8 million foldable units in the second half of 2026 and as many as 20 million over the first product cycle. Initial demand is expected to exceed supply.
The revenue math is powerful because the device is expected to carry a high price. Morgan Stanley models the 512GB version at about $2,399, while a 2TB model could reach $3,199.
Apple therefore does not need the foldable to replace hundreds of millions of conventional iPhones immediately.
A small number of premium buyers could generate billions in additional sales because each unit may cost more than twice as much as a standard flagship.
That makes the foldable financially meaningful long before it becomes mainstream.
Apple stock: The bigger risk is sticker shock
The problem is that the foldable is arriving as Apple faces higher memory costs.
AI data-centre demand has pushed up prices for DRAM and NAND, forcing smartphone makers to choose between absorbing higher component costs or passing them on to customers.
KeyBanc Capital Markets sees that trade-off as a negative catalyst.
According to Investing.com, the firm warned that broad price increases could trigger “sticker shock” and hurt unit volumes. It kept an Underweight rating and a $250 price target.
Morgan Stanley also expects Pro-model prices to rise by more than $200 year on year, making the September 9 launch a test of demand elasticity.
That matters because Apple shares have gained nearly 20% this year. The stock closed at $319.97 on September 4, leaving investors heading into the event with optimism embedded in the valuation.
If prices surprise on the upside but demand expectations do not, the launch could quickly become a sell-the-news event.
Apple’s premium buyers offer protection
The bullish counterargument is that Apple’s customers may be better equipped to absorb higher prices.
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant said Apple should remain “one of the most resilient vendors through the downturn,” citing its premium customer base, financing options and access to components.
That resilience matters because the foldable is a halo product. Apple does not need enormous volumes if the device lifts average selling prices, attracts affluent users and strengthens the ecosystem.
IDC expects Apple to ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, capturing roughly 40% of the foldable market. The research firm also expects the category to generate more than $45 billion in value for Apple by then.
But tomorrow’s event is still a test of expectations as much as technology.
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